生猪：现货转弱，远端预期偏强

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - At the end of the month and the beginning of the next month, large - scale pig farming groups significantly reduced the supply, and the spot price fulfilled the market's rebound expectation. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale groups will increase in August, and small - scale farmers are forced to hold back pigs. There is still supply pressure in September. The production capacity cycle and inventory cycle will resonate from September to October, and it is advisable to engage in the 11 - 1 reverse spread. The sentiment for purchasing piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the slaughter cost from March to May. Attention should be paid to the downward - shifting driving force of the central price in March and May. There is an expectation of further policy regulation and implementation for the July contract, and it is mainly bullish in the short - term, with attention to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2601 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Spot Prices: The Henan spot price is 14,080 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 13,850 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 15,840 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year [1] - Futures Prices: The price of the生猪2511 contract is 13,550 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 45 yuan/ton; the price of the生猪2601 contract is 13,915 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 55 yuan/ton; the price of the生猪2603 contract is 13,130 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 35 yuan/ton [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. The strength levels are classified as weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong, where -2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [2] Market Logic - At the end of the month and the beginning of the next month, large - scale pig farming groups significantly reduced the supply, and the spot price fulfilled the market's rebound expectation. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale groups will increase in August, and small - scale farmers are forced to hold back pigs. There is still supply pressure in September. The production capacity cycle and inventory cycle will resonate from September to October, and it is advisable to engage in the 11 - 1 reverse spread. The sentiment for purchasing piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the slaughter cost from March to May. Attention should be paid to the downward - shifting driving force of the central price in March and May. There is an expectation of further policy regulation and implementation for the July contract, and it is mainly bullish in the short - term, with attention to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2601 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [3] Futures Research - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the生猪2511 contract is 19,415 lots, a decrease of 6,627 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 73,596 lots, an increase of 208 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the生猪2601 contract is 7,959 lots, a decrease of 3,513 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 48,179 lots, a decrease of 577 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the生猪2603 contract is 3,160 lots, an increase of 315 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 32,475 lots, a decrease of 109 lots from the previous day [4] - Basis and Spread Data: The basis of the生猪2511 contract is - 100 yuan/ton; the basis of the生猪2601 contract is 785 yuan/ton; the basis of the生猪2603 contract is 20 yuan/ton; the 11 - 1 spread of live pigs is 530 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 55 yuan/ton; the 1 - 3 spread of live pigs is 165 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 155 yuan/ton [4]