贵金属日评：美联储理事沃勒日9月开启降息，美国7月职位空缺低于预期前值-20250904

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The Fed Chairman Powell signaled a September rate cut due to weakening employment supply and demand. Coupled with Trump's continuous pressure or potential replacement of Fed officials and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to go long on price dips [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - Gold: Shanghai gold's closing price was 809.97 yuan/g, with trading volume of 70,268.00 and open interest of 221,198.00. COMEX gold futures' closing price was 3,410.70 dollars/oz, trading volume was 94,317.00, and open interest was 360,647.00. London gold spot price was 3,334.25 dollars/oz. SPDR gold ETF holdings were 25.77 million ounces, and iShare gold ETF holdings were 456.72 million ounces [1]. - Silver: Shanghai silver's closing price was 433.00 yuan/kg, trading volume was -101,174.00, and open interest was 3,489,224.00. COMEX silver futures' closing price was 38.55 dollars/oz, trading volume was 22,029.00, and open interest was 88,833.00. London silver spot price was 40.52 dollars/oz. US iShare silver ETF holdings were -85.08 million ounces, and Canadian PSLV silver ETF holdings were 6,084.49 million ounces [1]. Macroeconomic Data - Interest Rates: US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.2200%, TIPS yield was 1.8200%, and breakeven inflation rate was 2.4000%. Shanghai Inter - bank Offered Rate (SHIBOR) overnight was 1.32%, and SHIBOR one - year was 1.66% [1]. - Exchange Rates: The US dollar index was 98.1485, the US dollar to RMB central parity rate was 7.1108, and the euro to RMB central parity rate was 8.2855 [1]. - Stock Indices: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,813.5566, the S&P 500 was 32.72, the UK FTSE 100 was 9,321.4000, the French CAC40 was 7,719.7100, the German DAX was 23,487.3300, the Nikkei 225 was 42,807.8200, and the South Korean Composite Index was 3,184.4200 [1]. Important News - US: Trump reiterated tariffs might replace income tax, and the US threatened with tariffs against the UN shipping emissions agreement. US July JOLTS job openings hit a 10 - month low. US August tariffs exceeded $31 billion, a record high. Fed Governor Waller suggested starting rate cuts this month and multiple cuts in the next 3 - 6 months [1]. - Europe: Eurozone August PMI was slightly revised down, and German services unexpectedly shrank. The European Central Bank paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit facility rate at 2%. The Bank of England cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August [1]. - Asia: The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will reduce quarterly government bond purchases from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen starting in April 2026 [1]. Trading Strategy - For precious metals, investors are advised to go long on price dips. For London gold, focus on support around 3,200 - 3,300 dollars/oz and resistance around 3,600 - 3,700 dollars/oz. For Shanghai gold, focus on support around 760 - 770 yuan/g and resistance around 840 - 850 yuan/g. For London silver, focus on support around 36 - 37 dollars/oz and resistance around 41 - 43 dollars/oz. For Shanghai silver, focus on support around 9,000 - 9,400 yuan/kg and resistance around 10,000 - 10,500 yuan/kg [1].