稳增长的下半场支柱：新型政策性金融工具如何托底？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Policy - based financial tools are carriers of policy - based finance, aiming to provide capital for national strategic projects, with a strong "quasi - fiscal" attribute. Historical practices include the special construction funds from 2015 - 2017 and the policy - based and development financial tools in 2022. The upcoming new policy - based financial tools may continue the feature of monetary - fiscal coordination [14][18][108]. - If the new policy - based financial tools are established in the third quarter of 2025 and fully invested within the year, they are expected to boost RMB credit growth by 0.33 - 1.00 percentage points and infrastructure investment growth by 5.67 - 12.38 percentage points in 2025 [4][101]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 What are Policy - based Financial Tools? - "Policy - based finance" emphasizes government macro - control. Policy - based financial tools are carriers of policy - based finance, providing capital for national strategic projects and having a "quasi - fiscal" attribute. The concept of new policy - based financial tools was first proposed in 2025, which may inject new vitality into infrastructure investment and help stabilize economic growth in the second half of the year [13][14]. 3.2 Looking Back at the Historical Practice and Evolution of Policy - based Financial Tools 3.2.1 Special Construction Funds with "Second Fiscal" Characteristics - Establishment Background: In 2015, to expand effective investment and relieve economic downward pressure, the NDRC proposed to issue special bonds to raise funds for special construction funds. Externally, the Fed tightened liquidity, and internally, the economy was in the "three - phase superposition" new normal, with domestic investment in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing declining [19]. - Funding Sources: Initially, policy banks issued special bonds to the Postal Savings Bank, with 90% central fiscal discount. Later, it was changed to public issuance in the market, and the discount was adjusted to different levels [22]. - Investment Areas: It mainly supported key construction projects, covering five major categories and 33 special projects such as people's livelihood improvement, "three rural" construction, and infrastructure. It also began to expand to transformation and upgrading fields [26]. - Operation Mode: Policy banks established special construction fund companies. Local governments and state - owned enterprises submitted project applications to the NDRC, which formed a project list. The funds were invested in an equity form, with a fixed return and an exit mechanism such as equity transfer or repurchase [30][32][33]. - Investment Effect: Theoretically, it could leverage 4 - 6.67 times the investment scale, and in practice, it could leverage 3.45 - 4.29 times. It played a role in stabilizing infrastructure investment, and the growth rate of fixed - asset investment in industries such as water conservancy increased significantly [40][41]. 3.2.2 Policy - based and Development Financial Tools Highlighting "Monetary - Fiscal Coordination" - Establishment Background: In 2022, due to the impact of the pandemic, the economy faced triple pressures. The government introduced a series of policies, including setting up policy - based and development financial tools to support economic growth. A total of about 7399 billion yuan was invested [44][48]. - Funding Sources: The first batch was mainly from market - based bond issuance, and the subsequent batches might have PSL funds as a supplement, reflecting the synergy between currency and finance [51]. - Investment Areas: The scope was further expanded to include some new infrastructure and green energy projects. However, in practice, traditional infrastructure fields were still the main focus [53][54]. - Operation Mode: Similar to special construction funds, policy banks established infrastructure fund investment companies. The central government provided appropriate interest subsidies for 2 years. The investment period was 15 - 20 years [59][60]. - Investment Effect: It significantly promoted infrastructure investment, boosting the growth of large - scale project investment and total fixed - asset investment. It also repaired the loan demand in the infrastructure industry [68][69]. 3.2.3 Comparison of the Two Types of Policy - based Financial Tools - Although there are differences in details such as funding sources, subsidy policies, and investment ratios, their core function is to provide project capital for major projects, essentially "capital loans" [71]. 3.3 Understanding the New Policy - based Financial Tools - The core function may still be to supplement project capital, but the investment areas may include new infrastructure such as digital economy and artificial intelligence, and the support may be tilted towards private enterprises [78][79]. - The funding sources may be market - based bond issuance by policy banks, supplemented by PSL funds and central fiscal subsidies. The total scale is about 50 billion yuan [80][81]. - The operation process is similar to the previous two rounds. It may participate in the form of equity investment, shareholder loans, and special bond capital bridging loans, with shareholder loans being the main form [85]. - The establishment speed is relatively slow, possibly to reserve policy space and allow sufficient time for project application. It is expected to be established and put into use in September - October 2025 to stabilize infrastructure growth [90][98]. 3.4 Calculation of the Stimulative Effect of New Policy - based Financial Tools on Stable Growth - Credit Demand Stimulative Effect: Referring to the 2022 experience, policy - based financial tools can leverage 1.55 - 4.73 times of credit demand. If 50 billion yuan of new policy - based financial tools are invested within the year, they can boost credit growth by 0.33 - 1.00 percentage points [102][104]. - Infrastructure Investment Stimulative Effect: They can leverage 10 - 13.2 times of total infrastructure investment. About 50 billion yuan of new policy - based financial tools can boost infrastructure investment growth by 5.67 - 12.38 percentage points in 2025 [105][106]. 3.5 Summary - Policy - based financial tools play a crucial role in providing capital for major projects. The upcoming new tools may continue the feature of monetary - fiscal coordination, with innovations in investment areas and participating subjects. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the central bank adjusting PSL interest rates [108].