镍&不锈钢周报2025/9/3-20250904

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term bearish trend of nickel fundamentals remains unchanged. Affected by events in major producing countries, recent market fluctuations have increased. The unrest mainly occurred in the capital area of Indonesia and was short - lived, causing no substantial impact on nickel supply. In the short term, the contradiction in refined nickel is not prominent. Based on repeated macro - expectations, nickel prices are likely to fluctuate widely [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel - Price and Market Performance: Last week, the Shanghai Nickel main contract 2510 opened at 119,550 yuan/ton, closed at 121,700 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 122,690 yuan/ton and a low of 119,530 yuan/ton, up 1.75% for the week. As of September 1, the electrolytic nickel spot price increased by 3,050 yuan/ton to 124,300 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 2.52% increase [8][11]. - Supply and Demand Factors - Nickel Ore: As of September 1, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore were flat at 29, 57, and 78.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week. As of August 29, the ex - factory prices of Indonesian Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore were flat at 24.5 and 52.2 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week. Last week, the freight rates from the Philippines to Tianjin Port and Lianyungang increased by 0.5 US dollars to 12.5 and 11.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively [28]. - Refined Nickel: As of August 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 0.24 million tons to 3.52 million tons month - on - month, a 7.32% increase and a 20.55% increase year - on - year. As of September 1, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 519 tons to 21,800 tons week - on - week, a 2.33% decrease. LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 696 tons to 209,800 tons week - on - week, a 0.33% increase. Last week, the social inventory of pure nickel (including the Shanghai Futures Exchange) decreased by 1,402 tons to 39,500 tons week - on - week, a 3.43% decrease [38][40]. - Nickel Iron: As of August 2025, the national nickel pig iron production (metal content) increased by 0.08 million tons to 2.53 million tons month - on - month, a 3.02% increase. As of September 1, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 12.5 yuan/nickel point to 943 yuan/nickel point week - on - week, a 1.34% increase [67][23]. - Sulfuric Acid Nickel: As of July 2025, China's monthly sulfuric acid nickel production increased by 0.43 million tons to 2.91 million nickel tons month - on - month, a 17.3% increase. As of September 1, the average price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel increased by 160 yuan/ton to 27,800 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 0.58% increase [52][23]. - Stainless Steel: As of September 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel production is estimated to increase by 3.74% to 3.4021 million tons month - on - month. As of August 29, the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 0.88 million tons to 1.083 million tons week - on - week, a 0.81% decrease [81][84]. Monthly Balance Sheet - From January to December 2025, the total nickel production ranges from 8.2 to 9.0 million tons, imports from 9.8 to 12.5 million tons, exports from 1.3 to 2.2 million tons, and total consumption from 17.3 to 19.2 million tons. There are periods of surplus and shortage, with supply and consumption showing different year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes [4].