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豆粕：贸易摩擦担忧，美豆偏弱、连粕略偏强，豆一：低位震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-04 03:29

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to concerns about trade frictions, US soybeans are weak, while Dalian soybean meal is slightly strong, and Dalian soybeans are in a low - level shock [1] - On September 3, CBOT soybean futures fell for the second consecutive day because of intensified trade tensions and concerns about insufficient exports to China [3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: DCE soybean 2511 closed at 3961 yuan/ton during the day session, down 8 yuan (-0.20%), and 3958 yuan at night, down 6 yuan (-0.15%); DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3066 yuan/ton during the day session, up 10 yuan (+0.33%), and 3069 yuan at night, up 12 yuan (+0.39%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1031.75 cents/bushel, down 8.25 cents (-0.79%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 282.8 dollars/short ton, down 0.5 dollars (-0.18%) [1] - Spot Prices: In Shandong, soybean meal (43%) prices were 3050 - 3070 yuan/ton, with a change of -20 to flat compared to the previous day; in East China, the price in Taizhou Huifu was 2990 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan compared to the previous day; in South China, prices were 3000 - 3060 yuan/ton, with a change of flat to +10 yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Main Industry Data: The trading volume of soybean meal was 6.5 million tons/day, and the inventory was 101.49 million tons/week [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On September 3, CBOT soybean futures fell for the second consecutive day. The main reason was the intensification of trade tensions and concerns about insufficient exports to China. The market sentiment has turned negative. China has not increased its purchase of US soybeans, and the US is approaching the harvest season [3] - According to a survey by Allendale from August 18th to 29th, the estimated US soybean production this year is 4.27 billion bushels, with a yield of 53.28 bushels per acre, both lower than the USDA's August forecast [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybeans is 0, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the day session of the reporting day [3]