光大期货煤化工商品日报-20250904

Group 1: Research Views - Urea futures price oscillated weakly on Wednesday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1714 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.89%. The spot market was basically stable. Urea supply fluctuated at a low level, with a daily output of 18.24 tons on September 3. Demand sentiment dropped significantly, and the inventory of urea enterprises increased slightly by 0.85%. The market is waiting for the results of the Indian tender. Before the news is clear, the market sentiment will remain weak, and the volatility may increase with the results of the tender. The outlook is for a volatile trend [1]. - The price of soda ash futures fluctuated widely on Wednesday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1276 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.24%. The spot market was mostly stable. The operating load of soda ash plants still fluctuated, and the industry's operating rate rose to 86.23% on September 3. Demand was still weak and stable. The supply - demand support for soda ash is limited, and the futures price will mainly show a wide - range oscillating trend. The short - term market sentiment is weak [1]. - The price of glass futures oscillated weakly on Wednesday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1135 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.61%. The spot market quotation was stable. Glass supply remained stable, and the demand follow - up sentiment did not change significantly. The demand for glass has not improved significantly, but manufacturers are reluctant to cut prices. The futures market has limited new drivers, and the market sentiment is temporarily weak, with the market in a bottom - consolidation phase [1]. Group 2: Market Information Urea - On September 3, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 7,205, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 961 [4]. - On September 3, the daily output of the urea industry was 18.24 tons, unchanged from the previous working day and 0.2 tons less than the same period last year. The operating rate was 77.96%, a decrease of 4.83 percentage points compared to the same period last year [5]. - On September 3, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various regions of China remained unchanged, with Shandong at 1710 yuan/ton, Henan at 1720 yuan/ton, etc. [6]. - On September 3, the inventory of urea enterprises was 109.5 tons, an increase of 0.92 tons or 0.85% from last week [7]. Soda Ash & Glass - On September 3, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 5,232, an increase of 150 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 1340. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2,026, a decrease of 5 from the previous trading day [9]. - On September 3, the spot prices of soda ash varied by region. For example, in North China, the price of light soda ash was 1220 yuan/ton and heavy soda ash was 1300 yuan/ton [9]. - On September 3, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 86.23%, up from 83.97% the previous working day [10]. - On September 3, the average price of the float glass market was 1156 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the daily output of the industry was 15.96 tons, also unchanged [10]. Group 3: Chart Analysis - The report includes various charts such as the closing price of the main urea and soda ash contracts, their basis, trading volume and open interest, the price difference between different contract months, and the spot price trends of urea and soda ash, as well as the price differences between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash futures [12][14][18]. Group 4: Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won many awards [28]. - Zhang Linglu is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass. She has won many honors [28]. - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [28].