工业硅、多晶硅日报-20250904

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On September 3, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,490 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.29%. The position decreased by 1,738 lots to 279,700 lots. The spot reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon was 9,369 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade silicon dropped back to 8,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 115 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2511 closed at 52,160 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.34%. The position increased by 3,355 lots to 149,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 49,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material dropped to 49,000 yuan/ton. The spot discount widened to 3,300 yuan/ton. The resumption of production in the north and south of industrial silicon and the increase in crystalline silicon production have become marginal drivers, and the overall operating center is expected to rise slightly. After the previous anti-involution news was fully priced in, the trading focus of polysilicon has gradually shifted to fundamental logic. Due to the limitation of terminal power station yields, the acceptance of price increases in the component sector has reached its peak, and the sentiment in the silicon material market has cooled along with the downstream market. Before the introduction of specific policy measures, the market is still in a game between policy boosts and fundamental drags. Polysilicon has entered a range-bound mode with obvious tops and bottoms, and policy dynamics have a phased impact on the market. Attention should be paid to the results of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's energy-saving special inspection on September 30 and the destocking situation in the industrial chain [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 8,505 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 8,485 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price was 8,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 10 yuan to 115 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 319 to 50,348, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 955 tons to 252,265 tons. The inventory at Huangpu Port remained unchanged at 55,000 tons, and the inventory at Tianjin Port decreased by 2,000 tons to 68,000 tons. The inventory at Kunming Port decreased by 1,000 tons to 48,500 tons. The industrial silicon factory inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 271,400 tons, and the total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 7,000 tons to 442,900 tons [3]. - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 285 yuan/ton to 52,160 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract increased by 330 yuan/ton to 52,330 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades of polysilicon remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price was 49,000 yuan/ton, and the spot discount increased by 330 yuan to 3,330 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 6,870, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 11,040 tons to 206,400 tons. The polysilicon factory inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 245,000 tons, and the total social inventory of polysilicon decreased by 30,000 tons to 245,000 tons [3]. - Organic Silicon: The spot price of DMC in the East China market remained unchanged at 10,800 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber, 107 glue, and dimethyl silicone oil remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,500 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][9]. 3.2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, solar cells, and solar modules [12][16][18]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Charts show the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [21][24]. 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost and profit, and polysilicon cost and profit [27][29][33].