铅锌日评：区间整理-20250904

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The lead market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. With Powell's dovish remarks and increased market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, and positive domestic sentiment, lead prices will remain range - bound [1]. - The zinc market has an increasing supply of both zinc ore and zinc ingots, while demand is in the off - season and inventories are accumulating, showing a weak fundamental situation. However, the extremely low overseas LME zinc inventory, the LME 0 - 3 shifting to a back structure, and high capital concentration drive up LME zinc prices, which will support SHFE zinc. It is expected that SHFE zinc will be range - bound in the short term under the influence of external markets [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - Related Key Data and Changes - SMM1 lead ingot average price is 16,750.00 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [1]. - The closing price of the futures main contract is 16,865.00 yuan/ton, up 0.09% [1]. - The SHFE lead basis is - 115.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 [1]. - The trading volume of the futures active contract is 30,342.00 lots, down 28.14% [1]. - The open interest of the futures active contract is 50,638.00 lots, down 1.68% [1]. - LME inventory is 254,550.00 tons, unchanged [1]. - SHFE lead warrant inventory is 55,874.00 tons, down 0.98% [1]. - The closing price of LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic session) is 1,995.50 US dollars/ton, up 0.08% [1]. - The SHFE - LME lead price ratio is 8.45, up 0.01% [1]. Lead - Related News - A small - to - medium - sized lead - zinc mine in Anhui is undergoing rectification and maintenance, expected to complete by the end of September and start the market quotation process in October. After normal operation, the monthly output of lead and zinc will reach about 450 metal tons [1]. - A large - scale secondary lead smelter in East China plans to stop production this Friday due to equipment maintenance and weak downstream lead consumption, which may reduce secondary lead production by over 8,000 tons in September [1]. Zinc - Related Key Data and Changes - SMM1 zinc ingot average price is 22,170.00 yuan/ton, up 0.41% [1]. - The closing price of the futures main contract is 22,285.00 yuan/ton, down 0.18% [1]. - The SHFE zinc basis is - 115.00 yuan/ton, up 130.00 [1]. - The trading volume of the futures active contract is 117,964.00 lots, down 6.15% [1]. - The open interest of the futures active contract is 104,733.00 lots, down 2.72% [1]. - LME inventory is 55,225.00 tons, unchanged [1]. - SHFE zinc warrant inventory is 40,947.00 tons, up 5.11% [1]. - The closing price of LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic session) is 2,869.50 US dollars/ton, up 0.14% [1]. - The SHFE - LME zinc price ratio is 7.77, down 0.32% [1]. Zinc - Related News - Some galvanized orders that could not be delivered on time due to environmental restrictions in Tianjin and Hebei have flowed to galvanizing plants in Shandong and Henan [1]. - A galvanizing plant in Hebei has been under maintenance since August 20 due to a zinc pot problem, expected to resume normal production on September 5, affecting about 5,000 tons of galvanized product output [1]. - Environmental requirements in Tianjin and Hebei were lifted at 0:00 on September 4, and local and surrounding galvanizing plants began to resume normal production. Some galvanizing plants in Henan stopped production on August 31 due to environmental requirements and the impact was lifted at 12:00 on September 3, with a relatively small overall impact [1].