补库暂告段落，玉米盘面回归弱势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The corn market is currently in a weak position as the restocking phase has ended, but the decline after the new grain harvest is expected to be less than last year. Short - term, look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds; long - term, consider low - buying when the futures price falls below cost [1][2]. - The oil market may continue to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, but is likely to strengthen in the medium term due to factors such as increased demand for palm oil and soybean oil from overseas biodiesel, potential reduction in US soybean yield, and the approaching palm oil production reduction season [6]. - The protein meal market will continue to fluctuate within a range. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips. Oil mills are advised to sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises should buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [7]. - The pig market is in a low - level oscillation. Before the National Day, the inventory will be gradually released, and the spot and near - month prices are expected to remain weak. The far - month contract is supported by the expectation of capacity reduction, presenting a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [9]. - The natural rubber market has no obvious short - term drivers and will maintain range - bound trading, with a short - term upward bias [12]. - The synthetic rubber market will maintain range - bound trading, and the short - term price is expected to rise slightly and the market may be strong [13]. - The cotton market has support but lacks upward drivers. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and may face downward pressure after the new cotton is listed in large quantities [14]. - The sugar market is in a downward trend. In the long term, due to the expected supply surplus in the new season, the price is expected to be weak; in the short term, it will fluctuate within the range of 5550 - 5750 [16]. - The pulp market has unclear core drivers and is expected to fluctuate [17]. - The log market is in a weak oscillation. Technically, it is in a downward trend, but the supply will ease in the future, showing a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [18][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - Oil: Due to pessimistic demand expectations, US soybeans fell on Tuesday while US soybean oil rose. The domestic oil market continued to fluctuate. Factors such as the US soybean's reduced excellent - rate, the impact of Sino - US trade relations on export demand, and the expected increase in US biodiesel demand for soybean oil were considered. The inventory of domestic soybean oil may peak, and the inventory increase of Malaysian palm oil in August may be limited. The short - term outlook is for continued oscillation and adjustment, and the medium - term outlook is for a strong trend [6]. - Protein Meal: International soybean prices are affected by weather and Sino - US trade relations. The US soybean excellent - rate has decreased, and the 9 - month supply - demand report may lower the yield per unit. The domestic market has limited room for price decline, and the demand is expected to increase steadily. The outlook is for range - bound trading [7]. - Corn/Starch: The domestic corn price is generally stable. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The wheat substitution may decrease. The short - term outlook is to wait for short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and the long - term outlook is to consider low - buying [1][9]. - Pig: The short - term supply is abundant, and the long - term supply is expected to increase. The demand is affected by temperature changes, and the inventory is gradually being released. The market shows a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [9]. - Natural Rubber: The price fluctuates within a range. There are some positive factors such as the approaching seasonal rise period, but the short - term upward space is limited [12]. - Synthetic Rubber: The market follows the natural rubber market and is supported by the cost of raw material butadiene. The short - term price is expected to rise slightly [13]. - Cotton: The current low - inventory and improving - demand situation provides support for the price. The price is expected to be strong in the short term but may face pressure after the new cotton is listed [14]. - Sugar: The international and domestic sugar supplies are increasing, and the price is under downward pressure. The long - term outlook is for a weak trend, and the short - term outlook is for range - bound trading [16]. - Pulp: The spot trading is light, and the core driver of the futures is unclear. The price is expected to fluctuate [17]. - Log: The spot price is falling, and the market is in a weak oscillation. The supply pressure will ease in the future, and the market may show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [18][19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report lists the monitored varieties including oilseeds, protein meal, corn, starch, pigs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data analysis is provided [21][41][54]. 3.3 Rating Standards The report provides rating standards for the expected price trends of varieties, including strong, oscillating - strong, oscillating, oscillating - weak, and weak, with a time period of 2 - 12 weeks and a standard deviation calculation method [170]. 3.4 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all showed slight increases on September 3, 2025 [172]. - Agricultural Product Index: On September 3, 2025, the agricultural product index had a daily decline of 0.06%, a 5 - day increase of 0.13%, a 1 - month decline of 0.88%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.74% [174].