铁矿石：黑色系分化严重，关注后期宏观驱动

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The external macro - narrative is more positive, and there are still incremental expectations for domestic monetary and fiscal policies in the medium - term, which support the valuation of the black series. In the short - term, terminal demand is weakening, iron ore supply is steadily rising, demand is falling from a high level, and the overall supply - demand relationship is shifting from tight to balanced. Short - term iron ore lacks upward drivers and is expected to follow the sector. The price will fluctuate within a range [2][3]. Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Supply - Outer - mine shipments maintain a high growth rate. Australian and Brazilian shipments have been higher than the historical average for three consecutive weeks, Vale's shipments reached a five - year high, and non - mainstream shipments have been higher than last year's level for four consecutive weeks. The arrival volume is slightly lower than last year, and supply pressure is expected to gradually increase [2]. Demand - China's daily average pig iron output has slightly declined to 240.13 (a week - on - week decrease of 0.62). The steel mill profitability rate is continuously falling, and blast furnace profits are approaching the break - even point. With the parade - related production restrictions in North China, although the full - scale loss of short - process steelmaking protects iron ore demand to some extent, the support from domestic demand for prices is weakening [2]. Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills has declined but remains high. The steel mill inventory has decreased due to more maintenance in North China. The port inventory has slightly decreased, and with high daily consumption and high pig iron output, the inventory is expected to remain stable in the short - term, with no significant pressure to accumulate [2]. Price - The price will fluctuate within a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore (2601 contract) will be in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market FE10 price of about 101 - 104 [3].