金融期货早班车-20250904

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term view of being bullish on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips, but there are signs of short - term market cooling [1]. - For bond index futures, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies for the medium and long term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory (1) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On September 3, most of the four major A - share stock indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.16% to 3813.56 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.65% to 12472 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.95% to 2899.37 points, and the STAR 50 Index fell 1.64% to 1306.48 points. Market turnover was 23,957 billion yuan, a decrease of 5,167 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - In terms of industry sectors, the comprehensive, communication, and power equipment sectors led the gains, while national defense and military industry, non - bank finance, and computer sectors led the losses [1]. - From the perspective of market strength, IF>IH>IC>IM. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 822, 44, and 4,559 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 203, - 276, 32, and 447 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +517, +201, - 222, and - 496 billion yuan respectively [1]. - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 131.48, 129.66, 40.03, and 14.19 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 16.89%, - 17.48%, - 8.31%, and - 4.44% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 10%, 3%, 11%, and 21% respectively [1]. (2) Bond Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On September 3, the yields of bond index futures declined. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond fell 1.99bps to 1.351, the five - year bond fell 3.35bps to 1.573, the ten - year bond fell 2.88bps to 1.71, and the thirty - year bond fell 4.11bps to 2.085 [1]. - The CTD bonds, yield changes, net basis, and IRR of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year bond index futures are provided. For example, the CTD bond of the 2 - year bond index futures is 250012.IB, with a yield change of - 1.25bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.019, and an IRR of 1.51% [1]. - In terms of the money market, the central bank's currency injection was 2,291 billion yuan, currency withdrawal was 3,799 billion yuan, and the net withdrawal was 1,508 billion yuan [1]. (3) Economic Data High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [11].