海外超长债：higherforlonger

Group 1: Market Trends - Recent surge in long-term bond yields in the UK, Japan, and the US, with Japan's 30-year bond yield reaching 3.28%, the highest on record[1] - UK 30-year bond yield climbed to 5.75%, the highest since 1998[1] - US 30-year bond yield touched 5%, indicating a significant upward trend in long-term rates[1] Group 2: Economic Factors - Fed's interest rate cut expectations primarily affect short-term rates, while long-term rates are rising due to inflation concerns[1] - Market inflation expectations, as indicated by the 5Y5Y inflation forecast, have been on the rise since April, reflecting long-term inflation worries[1] - Concerns over fiscal sustainability in Japan and the UK are increasing, with Japan's inflation rate reaching 3.8% in July, the highest since January of the previous year[3] Group 3: Seasonal and Supply Dynamics - Historical data shows that long-term bonds typically perform poorly in September, with a median decline of 2% over the past decade[4] - High issuance of corporate bonds, exceeding $90 billion recently, is contributing to supply-demand mismatches in the market[4] Group 4: Investment Implications - Higher long-term bond yields may attract investment as they offer better relative value compared to equities[5] - Concerns about the independence of the Fed and the "stagflation" environment in developed economies are putting downward pressure on bonds and currencies, favoring gold as a more stable investment[6]