回踩行情展开，短期高位震荡，趋势多单等待

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term trend: Oscillatory [1] - Medium - short - term trend: Bullish [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent spot sentiment is strong, especially in the startup and growth sectors, which have continuously reached new highs. Although the overall trend is bullish, short - term changes need attention. The market is rising amidst divergence, with an increased retracement amplitude. After the trading volume exceeded 3 trillion, there is a possibility of the index losing upward momentum after sufficient chip turnover. Derivatives have entered a defensive state, with the discount of stock index futures widening last week, especially for IC and IM, indicating a significant increase in cautious sentiment. The profit - making effect is limited due to significant sector differentiation. Considering factors such as the full release of domestic macro risks and the start of the overseas interest - rate cut cycle, the stock index is expected to continue rising in the medium - to - long term. Currently, the market lacks the conditions for a rapid bull market. [3] - In terms of futures operations, short - term long positions are advised to set stop - loss and take - profit points in a timely manner, and medium - to - long - term long positions should wait for further adjustments before entering. For options operations, the implied volatility of stock index options declined yesterday. Those who have entered double - selling positions are advised to take profits, and those holding until expiration need to be aware of potential margin fluctuations during the contract period. [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Stock Market Information - FTSE Russell announced changes to the quarterly review of the FTSE China A50 Index, including the inclusion of BeiGene - U, New Fiber Optic Network, WuXi AppTec, and Zhongji Innolight, and the removal of China National Nuclear Power, China Unicom, State Grid NARI, and Wanhua Chemical. [4] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 3.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 96.6%. In October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 1.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 46.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 51.6%. [4] Stock Index Disk Review Disk Tracking - In the previous trading day, the A - share market showed a divergent trend. Among the four major indices, the Shanghai 50 Index fell 1.07%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.68%, the CSI 500 Index fell 1.34%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.46%. In terms of sectors, precious metals (+1.61%) and electric power grids (+1.59%) led the gains, while aerospace and defense (-6.63%) and diversified finance (-3.66%) lagged. Only more than 800 stocks rose, and 41 stocks hit the daily limit, indicating a poor profit - making effect. [4] Technical Tracking - The daily - line chart shows high - level divergence, with signs of weakening upward momentum. In the long - term, the four major stock indices have broken through their 2023 highs, and the weekly and monthly lines maintain an upward trend, with the bullish signal continuing. [4] Capital Flow - The trading volume of A - shares declined yesterday, remaining in the range of 2.3 - 2.4 trillion throughout the day. Although it decreased compared to last week, the trading enthusiasm is still at a historical high, and the short - term chip turnover rate is relatively fast. [4]