光大期货碳酸锂日报-20250904

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On September 3, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2511 contract dropped 3.1% to 71,880 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,600 yuan/ton to 75,900 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate fell by 1,600 yuan/ton to 73,600 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) declined by 350 yuan/ton to 76,000 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 2,111 tons to 34,118 tons [3]. - On the supply side, weekly production continued to slow down with a narrowing decline. Weekly output decreased by 108 tons to 19,030 tons. Lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 70 tons to 12,249 tons, while lithium extraction from lepidolite decreased by 150 tons to 2,500 tons. In September, lithium carbonate production is expected to increase by 1.7% to 86,730 tons, mainly due to an increase in lithium extraction from spodumene and a small amount from recycling, while lithium extraction from lepidolite and salt lakes is expected to decline. On the demand side, in September, ternary materials are expected to decrease by 1.5% to 72,330 tons, and lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase by 5.96% to 335,250 tons. In terms of inventory, the total inventory continued to decline slightly on a weekly basis, with a decrease of 407 tons to 141,136 tons. Downstream and intermediate links showed signs of restocking, while upstream continued to destock [3]. - Recently, prices have dropped rapidly. In the short term, the market is continuously digesting the price increase caused by the suspension of production at Jianxiakeng. After the digestion is complete, the market may re - price the expectations regarding mining permits. The fundamentals in September are relatively good, but attention should be paid to September 30, as Jiangxi lithium mining projects need to complete report compilation and submission by this date, and there may be a conclusion regarding the mining permit issues of other projects at that time [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides price data for various products in the lithium - battery industry chain on September 3 and 2, 2025, including futures, lithium ores, lithium carbonates, lithium hydroxides, hexafluorophosphate lithium, and some battery materials. For example, the closing price of the main futures contract decreased from 72,620 yuan/ton on September 2 to 71,880 yuan/ton on September 3, and the price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) dropped from 887 US dollars/ton to 872 US dollars/ton [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite with different Li₂O contents, and amblygonite with different Li₂O contents from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. 3.2.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and hexafluorophosphate lithium from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][14]. 3.2.3 Price Spreads - Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and some other price spreads from 2024 to 2025 [17][19][20]. 3.2.4 Precursor and Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [24][26][28]. 3.2.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][33]. 3.2.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from January to August 2025 [37][39]. 3.2.7 Production Cost - The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [43].