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燃料油日报：中东燃料油出口持续增加，关注欧佩克动向-20250904
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-04 05:18

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Volatility [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Volatility [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical and macro situation remains unclear, with limited progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks. The crude oil market faces many uncertainties in the short term and is in a range-bound oscillation, and the FU and LU futures also show narrow fluctuations [1]. - High-sulfur fuel oil is in a stage of market adjustment and rebalancing, with a mix of long and short factors. The increasing exports of Middle Eastern high-sulfur fuel oil due to OPEC's production increase pose potential pressure on the market [1]. - The current market pressure on low-sulfur fuel oil is limited. Although the market structure is relatively stable in the short term, there is no strong driving force. In the medium term, it still faces the contradiction of demand share substitution and surplus production capacity, with upward resistance despite some support at the lower end of the valuation [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.04% at 2,840 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.85% at 3,512 yuan/ton [1]. - The shipments of Middle Eastern high-sulfur fuel oil reached 3.41 million tons and 3.38 million tons in July and August respectively, much higher than the 2.08 million tons in January. There may be more room for export growth after the peak power demand season [1]. - The domestic production of low-sulfur fuel oil remains low, and the arbitrage supply from the West has tightened again. The export of Brazilian low-sulfur fuel oil has declined, and the external market maintains a Back structure [1]. Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Expected to be volatile [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Expected to be volatile [2] - No specific strategies for cross-variety, cross-period, spot-futures, and options [2]