新能源及有色金属日报：仓单增加较多，碳酸锂盘面偏弱运行-20250904

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: Buy call options [3] 2. Core View - On September 3, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures market continued to be weak. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate both increased. After the reduction in mica production, spodumene production compensated for part of the decrease. Chile's export volume was average, and it was expected to maintain a slight inventory reduction in September. The recent increase in warehouse receipts had a certain inhibitory effect on the market. Although there was support on the consumer side, the market was volatile [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Analysis - On September 3, 2025, the opening price of the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 was 72,860 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 71,880 yuan/ton, a - 3.10% change from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 442,800 lots, and the open interest was 346,048 lots (348,109 lots the previous day). The basis was 3,020 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipts were 34,118 lots, a change of 2,111 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 73,900 - 77,900 yuan/ton, a - 1,600 yuan/ton change from the previous trading day. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 72,900 - 74,300 yuan/ton, also a - 1,600 yuan/ton change. The 6% lithium concentrate price was 850 US dollars/ton, a - 10 US dollars/ton change from the previous day [1]. - The lithium carbonate futures continued to decline, with the lowest intraday price falling below 72,000 yuan/ton. The downstream price - fixing activities were extremely active. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the inventory cycle of downstream material factories was slightly extended. There was a structural differentiation on the supply side: the production of lithium mica in Jiangxi significantly contracted, and the increase in the spodumene end could make up for part of the gap. In September, the market showed a situation of increasing supply and demand, with demand growing faster, and there would be a temporary supply shortage [1]. - In August 2025, Chile's lithium carbonate export volume was 16,900 tons, a 19.2% month - on - month decrease and a 4.9% year - on - year increase. Exports to China were 13,000 tons, a 4.8% month - on - month decrease and a 6.9% year - on - year increase. Exports to South Korea were 3,000 tons, a 50.4% month - on - month decrease and a 35% year - on - year increase. In August 2025, Chile's lithium sulfate export volume was 6,916 tons, a 33.42% month - on - month decrease, all sent to China. From January to August 2025, Chile sent a total of 62,000 tons of lithium sulfate to China, a 127% year - on - year increase [2]. Strategy - It was expected that lithium carbonate would still have support, but the market was volatile. Participants needed to manage risks well. The unilateral strategy was cautiously bullish, and the option strategy was to buy call options [3].