新能源及有色金属日报：现货贴水弱势维持-20250904
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-04 05:37

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic spot market for zinc is running weakly with low - level stable discounts and cold trading, while overseas premiums are strengthening, and the short - term contradiction between domestic and overseas supply and demand is difficult to resolve. The domestic fundamentals are still weak, with high supply pressure due to existing smelting profits despite the possible decline of domestic concentrate TC. In August, zinc ingot production increased by 28% year - on - year, and inventory accumulation during the consumption peak season is likely. However, the overseas market provides support for prices as the macro - environment is positive, zinc supply is shrinking, consumption is stable, inventory is falling, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. With the decline of the absolute price of zinc ingots, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has improved. The short - term zinc price is judged to be neutral [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - Spot: The LME zinc spot premium is $20.44 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,240 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 70 yuan per ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,230 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 80 yuan per ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,230 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 80 yuan per ton [1]. - Futures: On September 3, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,250 yuan per ton and closed at 22,285 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 117,964 lots, and the open interest was 104,733 lots. The highest price was 22,390 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,230 yuan per ton [2]. - Inventory: As of September 3, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 146,300 tons, a change of 1,800 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 55,225 tons, a change of - 375 tons from the previous trading day [3].