贵金属日报：美联储理事沃勒强化9月降息预期，宽松催化持续发酵-20250904

Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core View - The expectation of interest rate cuts continues to ferment, and the weak economic data boosts the market to bet on the Fed's monetary policy shift. Gold prices are expected to remain in a volatile and upward pattern, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 800 yuan/gram and 850 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver currently shares the positive logic of loose expectations with gold. Along with the expectation of improved industrial demand after interest rate cuts, the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a volatile and upward pattern, with the Ag2510 contract oscillating between 9,800 yuan/kilogram and 10,300 yuan/kilogram [8]. Market Analysis - Macro: The US economic Beige Book shows that consumer spending is flat or declining as many households' wages fail to keep up with rising prices. As tariffs are gradually passed through the economy, businesses in some regions have raised prices of goods and services to offset rising costs [1]. - Employment: The number of job openings in the US in July dropped to 7.181 million from a downwardly revised 7.36 million in June, hitting a 10 - month low and far below the expected 7.382 million [1]. - Fed: Fed Governor Waller said the Fed should start cutting interest rates this month and make multiple cuts in the coming months, but he is open to the specific pace of rate cuts, which will depend on future economic data [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 3, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 804.42 yuan/gram and closed at 814.88 yuan/gram, up 1.31% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 817.50 yuan/gram and closed at 821.68 yuan/gram, up 0.83% from the afternoon close [2]. - On September 3, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 9,766.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,820.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.04% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 627,101 lots, and the open interest was 270,592 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9,851 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,918 yuan/kilogram, up 1.00% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 3, 2025, the yield on the 10 - year US Treasury note closed at 4.219%, up 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year yields was 0.602%, down 0.43 BP from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes of Precious Metals on the SHFE - On September 3, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by 400 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by 403 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 417,207 lots, a change of 30.38% from the previous trading day [4]. - In the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by 2 lots, and the short positions changed by - 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,128,851 lots, a change of 16.61% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF holdings were 984.26 tons yesterday, down 6.30 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,366.48 tons, up 56.48 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On September 3, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 21.99 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 885.80 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 82.98, a change of 1.35% from the previous trading day, and the foreign gold - silver ratio was 85.48, a change of 0.65% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On September 3, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 70,268 kilograms, a change of 35.49% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 373,924 kilograms, a change of - 15.92% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 17,146 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 15,030 kilograms [7]