新能源及有色金属日报：北方运输生产限制解除-20250904

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current macro situation mainly drives the rise in non - ferrous metal prices, with the spot market for electrolytic aluminum being weak, but consumption shows positive signs, and the reduction of inventory is expected. The overseas consumption is strong, and the consumption peak season is still expected. The alumina price is neutrally treated due to cost support and various influencing factors. The aluminum alloy consumption has recovered, and the profit has been repaired [6][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum - Price and Inventory: On September 3, 2025, the prices of A00 aluminum in East China, Central China, and Foshan were 20,730 yuan/ton, 20,570 yuan/ton, and 20,670 yuan/ton respectively. The opening price of the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract was 20,680 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 20,710 yuan/ton. The domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 623,000 tons, the warehouse receipt inventory was 59,557 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 479,600 tons [1][2] - Market Analysis: The macro situation is favorable, the supply remains unchanged, the consumption shows positive signs, the downstream processing enterprise production and the start - up rate have increased, the inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the overseas consumption is strong [6] Alumina - Price and Inventory: On September 3, 2025, the alumina prices in Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou were 3,155 yuan/ton, 3,130 yuan/ton, 3,170 yuan/ton, 3,280 yuan/ton, and 3,285 yuan/ton respectively. The opening price of the main alumina futures contract was 3,020 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2,992 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86% [2] - Market Analysis: After the sharp decline in the futures price, the spot market trading is cold, the north - south price difference has widened, the cost side has support, the price lacks the driving force to fall further, and the supply - demand balance is slightly surplus [7][8] Aluminum Alloy - Price, Inventory, and Profit: On September 3, 2025, the procurement prices of Baotai civil scrap aluminum and mechanical scrap aluminum were 15,900 yuan/ton and 16,100 yuan/ton respectively, with a change of 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The ADC12 Baotai quotation was 20,300 yuan/ton, with no change. The social inventory was 54,600 tons, the factory inventory was 61,200 tons, the theoretical total cost was 20,027 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 373 yuan/ton [3][4][5] - Market Analysis: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, the production profit has been repaired, the consumption has recovered, the increase in inventory is mainly due to the transformation of hidden inventory into explicit inventory, and the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract can still be concerned [8]