化工日报：下游恢复不及预期，PTA基差偏弱-20250904

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR is neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cost - side factors like geopolitical tensions and demand - side factors are driving up oil prices, but macro - level financial market shocks cause wide - range oil price fluctuations. Naphtha supply is expected to shrink, and demand is set to increase, leading to an improvement in its economic efficiency. The downstream olefin industry is approaching its peak season, with a guaranteed bottom - line for profits [1] - PX load is expected to rise. Although the PX fundamentals have weakened, it remains in a low - inventory state, and PXN has support at the bottom [1] - PTA's concentrated maintenance has improved supply - demand, but the actual maintenance volume of the Hengli Huizhou 500 - million - ton PTA plant is less than expected, narrowing the de - stocking range in September. The demand recovery is limited, and the polyester load increase in September may fall short of expectations [2] - The polyester start - up rate shows signs of recovery, but this week's order connection is insufficient. The short - term polyester load is expected to continue to rise steadily [2] - PF's supply - demand situation has improved, with inventory starting to decline, but there is strong wait - and - see sentiment and it is suppressed by warehouse receipts [2][4] - The fundamentals of PR have changed little. The spot processing fee is expected to fluctuate slightly, and the load increase is expected to be limited [3][4] 3. Summaries According to the Directory Price and Basis - TA main - contract spot basis is - 51 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 2 yuan/ton), PTA spot processing fee is 161 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 9 yuan/ton), and the main - contract on - screen processing fee is 347 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 2 yuan/ton) [2] Upstream Profits and Spreads - PXN is 246 dollars/ton (a month - on - month change of - 6.25 dollars/ton) [1] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - No specific data or analysis provided in the summary part Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - After the restart of Idemitsu's maintenance plant in early September and the subsequent restart of Fuhai Chuang, the domestic and foreign PX loads are expected to continue to rise. The PX load in China has gradually recovered [1] - The concentrated maintenance of PTA has improved supply - demand, but the actual maintenance volume of the Hengli Huizhou 500 - million - ton PTA plant is less than expected [2] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - No specific data or analysis provided in the summary part Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester start - up rate is 90.3% (a month - on - month increase of 0.3%). The short - term load is expected to continue to rise steadily, but this week's order connection is insufficient, and the weaving and texturing load has declined [2] PF Detailed Data - The spot production profit of PF is 117 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 8 yuan/ton). The load of direct - spinning polyester staple fibers has increased, and inventory is starting to decline [2] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The spot processing fee of PR is 408 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of + 13 yuan/ton). The industry is expected to maintain a 20% production reduction target in September, and the load increase is expected to be limited [3]