新能源及有色金属日报：升贴水趋于稳定-20250904

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 78,000 yuan/ton [7] Core View of the Report - In September, the supply side faces relatively large disturbances, such as reduced scrap copper circulation and intensive smelter maintenance. Although downstream demand is not outstanding, grid demand provides support. Coupled with the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, copper prices are expected to remain relatively strong in September [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On September 3, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,500 yuan/ton and closed at 80,110 yuan/ton, up 0.56% from the previous trading day's close. The night session opened at 80,000 yuan/ton and closed at 80,260 yuan/ton, up 0.19% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, on September 3, the spot premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper to the 2509 contract was 80 - 300 yuan/ton, with an average of 190 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price was 80,320 - 80,720 yuan/ton. Due to high copper prices and the impact of the parade on market trading, the procurement and sales sentiment weakened, and the premium of flat - copper dropped to around 100 yuan/ton. The premium is expected to remain in a stalemate with a low probability of significant fluctuations [2] Important Information Summary - Macro - economy: The US economic Beige Book shows that consumer spending is flat or declining as many families' wages fail to keep up with price increases. Some regions have raised prices of goods and services to cover rising costs. The number of job openings in the US in July dropped to 7.181 million, a 10 - month low. Fed Governor Waller said the Fed should start cutting interest rates this month and make multiple cuts in the coming months [3] - Mine End: Teck Resources has suspended major growth projects until its QB copper mine in Chile achieves stable production. SolGold has moved its tax residence to Switzerland to promote the development of its Cascabel copper - gold project and plans to advance the project's commissioning by 3 - 4 years. Codelco warns that Chile's copper production may stagnate at about 5.5 million tons per year [4] - Smelting and Import: In August, Chile exported 176,430 tons of copper, with 44,803 tons to China. The export of copper ore and concentrates was 989,009 tons, with 598,266 tons to China. The LME postponed the start of Asian trading by 90 minutes, and the 3 - month copper price reached the highest level since March [5] - Consumption: At the end of the month, downstream cable enterprises face increased capital pressure, high copper prices suppress orders, and the demand for enameled wires is weak. The raw material inventory decreased by 3.25% to 32,700 tons, and the finished product inventory increased by 2.87% to 68,000 tons. Demand is expected to pick up next week. In the wire and cable sector, high copper prices at the beginning of the week suppressed order release, and most enterprises focused on completing existing orders [5] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 100 tons to 158,575 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 30 tons to 19,471 tons. On September 1, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 132,100 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous week [6] Data Table - Spot (Premium): On September 4, 2025, the premium of SMM 1 copper was 190 yuan/ton, the premium of premium copper was 290 yuan/ton, the premium of flat - copper was 105 yuan/ton, the premium of wet - process copper was 20 yuan/ton, the Yangshan premium was 58 yuan/ton, and the LME (0 - 3) was - 70 [26] - Inventory: LME inventory was 158,575 tons, SHFE inventory was 79,748 tons, COMEX inventory was 254,987 tons [27] - Warehouse Receipts: SHFE warehouse receipts were 19,471 tons, and the proportion of LME cancelled warehouse receipts was 8.23% [27] - Arbitrage: CU11 - CU09 was - 60, CU10 - CU09 was 40, CU09/AL09 was 3.87, CU09/ZN09 was 3.59 [27] - Import Profit: - 53 yuan, and the Shanghai - London ratio (main contract) was 8.03 [28]