贵金属日评：美联储理事沃勒日9月开启降息美国7月职位空缺低于预期前值-20250904

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View of the Report - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, combined with Trump's continuous pressure and potential replacement of Fed officials, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries around the world, may make precious metal prices more likely to rise than fall. It is recommended that investors mainly take long positions when prices decline [1]. Summary by Relevant Categories Precious Metal Market Data - Gold: Shanghai gold's closing price on 2025 - 09 - 02 was 809.97 (yuan/gram), with a trading volume of 70268.00 and an open interest of 221198.00; COMEX futures active contract's closing price was 3619.70, with a trading volume of 94317.00 and an open interest of 360647.00; London gold spot price was 3556.20 (USD/ounce); SPDR gold ETF holding was 984.26, and iShare gold ETF holding was 456.92 [1]. - Silver: Shanghai silver's closing price on 2025 - 09 - 02 was 9377.00 (yuan/kilogram), with a trading volume of 627101.00 and an open interest of 270592.00; COMEX futures active contract's closing price was 41.73, with a trading volume of 22029.00 and an open interest of 88833.00; London silver spot price was 40.86 (USD/ounce); US iShare silver ETF holding was 15288.82, and Canadian PSLV silver ETF holding was 6065.79 [1]. Price Difference and Basis - Gold: The spread between near - month continuous and far - month active contracts was - 1.58, and the basis between spot and futures prices was - 3.36 [1]. - Silver: The spread between near - month continuous and far - month active contracts was - 12.00, and the basis between spot and futures prices was - 40.00 [1]. Macroeconomic and Policy Information - US: In July, TOLTS job openings dropped to a 10 - month low; in August, tariffs exceeded $31 billion, a record high; Fed Governor Waller suggested starting rate cuts this month and multiple cuts in the next 3 - 6 months; the Fed's Beige Book showed flat or declining consumer spending and price increases in all districts; due to weak employment supply and demand, Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a possible policy adjustment, making a September rate cut almost certain [1]. - Eurozone: In August, the PMI final value was slightly revised downwards, and Germany's service sector unexpectedly shrank; the ECB may cut rates at most twice before the end of 2025 [1]. - UK: In August, the key interest rate was cut by 25 basis points to 4.0%, and the Bank of England may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - Japan: The central bank may raise rates before the end of 2025, with the earliest possible time in October [1]. Trading Strategy - For precious metals, it is recommended that investors mainly take long positions when prices decline. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3200 - 3300 and the resistance level around 3600 - 3700; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 760 - 770 and the resistance level around 840 - 850; for London silver, focus on the support level around 36 - 37 and the resistance level around 41 - 43; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 9000 - 9400 and the resistance level around 10000 - 10500 [1].