原油日报：欧佩克考虑进一步解除限产-20250904

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] 2. Core View of the Report - OPEC considering further lifting production limits led to a sharp drop in oil prices. However, the factor limiting OPEC's production is Saudi Arabia's production willingness. Saudi Arabia can increase production to 10 million barrels per day but has not done so. Its contradictory approach has confused the market. Under the current supply - demand situation, the traditional policy of limiting production to maintain prices has reached a dead - end. If Saudi Arabia fails to address this issue, it will face a double - loss situation of both oil prices and market share [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped by $1.62, closing at $63.97 per barrel, a decline of 2.47%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for November delivery in London fell by $1.54, closing at $67.60 per barrel, a decline of 2.23%. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 1.67%, at 484 yuan per barrel [1] - As of the week ending September 3, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 14.506 million barrels, a decrease of 1.503 million barrels from 16.009 million barrels a week ago. Light distillate inventory decreased by 1.007 million barrels to 6.653 million barrels, a 13.15% month - on - month decrease; medium distillate inventory increased by 418,000 barrels to 2.304 million barrels, a 22.16% month - on - month increase; heavy residual fuel oil inventory decreased by 914,000 barrels to 5.549 million barrels, a 14.14% month - on - month decrease [1] - OPEC+ will consider further increasing oil production at a meeting on Sunday. If so, OPEC+ will start to lift the second - layer production cut of about 1.65 million barrels per day, accounting for 1.6% of global demand, more than a year ahead of schedule. Eight OPEC+ member countries will hold an online meeting on Sunday to decide on October's production [1] - A White House official said that the Trump administration hopes Europe to stop buying Russian oil and join its proposed sanctions against countries that continue to purchase Russian oil. In 2024, European countries still bought about $25.5 billion worth of Russian fossil fuels [1] - The expansion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline last year has made Canada's oil producers' export capacity exceed actual demand, complicating the government's plan to build new oil pipelines. Since the expansion project was put into operation in May 2024, the pipeline capacity in Western Canada has exceeded the actual oil export volume, with an average daily surplus of about 400,000 barrels. In June this year, the surplus soared to a peak of 574,000 barrels per day [1]