新能源及有色金属日报：政策预期影响较大，多晶硅盘面偏强运行-20250904

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Unilateral - Neutral, no specific ratings for other strategies [2] - Polysilicon: Unilateral - Short - term range operation, no specific ratings for other strategies [5] Group 2: Core Views - Industrial silicon: With stable spot prices, significant supply increase, polysilicon self - disciplined production cuts in September on the consumer side, inventory may start to increase, and the industrial silicon market may experience weak and volatile operations influenced by overall commodity sentiment [2] - Polysilicon: Spot quotes have been raised, downstream product prices have also increased. After self - disciplined production cuts in September, there is a certain reduction in supply, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved to some extent. The market is greatly affected by anti - involution policies, with large price fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [5] Group 3: Market Analysis of Industrial Silicon - Futures: On September 3, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8520 yuan/ton and closed at 8490 yuan/ton, a change of (-25) yuan/ton or (-0.29)% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 279742 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50348 lots, a change of 319 lots from the previous day [1] - Supply: Industrial silicon spot prices remained stable. In August 2025, industrial silicon production was 386,000 tons, a 14% month - on - month increase and a 19% year - on - year decrease. From January to August 2025, cumulative production decreased by 20% year - on - year [1] - Consumption: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 10500 - 10800 (-50) yuan/ton. Downstream procurement was cautious due to poor terminal demand, and monomer plants still adopted a strategy of offering discounts to secure orders [1] Group 4: Market Analysis of Polysilicon - Futures: On September 3, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 showed a strong and volatile trend, opening at 52000 yuan/ton and closing at 52160 yuan/ton, a 0.34% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 149210 lots, and the trading volume was 362759 lots [3] - Spot: Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. N - type material was priced at 49.00 - 54.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was priced at 48.00 - 49.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [3] - Inventory and Production: Polysilicon factory inventory decreased, while silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 213,000 tons, a - 14.29% month - on - month change; silicon wafer inventory was 18.05GW, a 3.68% month - on - month change. Weekly polysilicon production was 31,000 tons, a 6.53% week - on - week change; silicon wafer production was 13.31GW, an 8.30% week - on - week change [3] - Industry Forecast: In September, the expected polysilicon production in China is less than 130,000 tons, mainly due to expected production cuts in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai. Some second - and third - tier production lines have resumed production, offsetting part of the reduction [4] - Downstream Products: Silicon wafers, battery cells, and component prices remained stable [4]