农产品日报：供应压力显现，糖价偏弱整理-20250904

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][5][8] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, the short - term supply is tight, and the price may be slightly stronger before the large - scale listing of new flowers. In the medium - term, due to the strong expectation of a bumper harvest, the price may face pressure [3] - For sugar, the short - term supply pressure is large, but the low inventory of domestic sugar limits the continuous decline space [5] - For pulp, the current fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and the short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,990 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton (-0.39%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,373 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,465 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton [1] - India: There was heavy rainfall in cotton - growing areas, and the CCI auctioned about 170,000 tons of cotton on the 2nd, with the S - 6 auction reserve price stable at 54,500 rupees/candy [1] Market Analysis - International: India extended the tariff - exemption period, and the USDA in August significantly lowered the global cotton production and ending stocks. The US cotton supply - demand is expected to improve, but the slow export sales limit the upside [2] - Domestic: The inventory reduction speed is fast, and the commercial inventory is at a low level. The late - issued and limited sliding - duty quotas did not solve the tight supply problem. The new cotton is growing well, and there is a possibility of抢购 at the beginning, but the hedging pressure during the centralized listing will limit the price [2] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term price may be slightly stronger, and there may be a decline in the medium - term if the peak season is disappointing [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,562 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton (-0.66%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,900 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,850 yuan/ton [3] - India: The government allowed sugar mills and distilleries to use various raw materials to produce ethanol without restrictions in the 2025/26 season [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Brazil's Conab and other institutions lowered the sugar production forecast, and Pakistan's purchase boosted the price. However, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, and the northern hemisphere's production increase expectation suppresses the price [4] - Zheng sugar: The high import profit and large import volume in July, along with the impact of processed sugar in August - September, put pressure on the price [5] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term supply pressure is large, but the low domestic sugar inventory limits the decline space. Pay attention to syrup policy changes [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5,050 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+0.16%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,750 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,100 yuan/ton [5] - Market: The import wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with some prices rising slightly [6] Market Analysis - Supply: There will be more pulp production capacity put into operation in the second half of the year in China, and the import volume is expected to decline. However, the slow port inventory reduction and high inventory level maintain the supply pressure [7] - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US is weak, and the domestic demand is also sluggish during the off - season, with high finished - product inventory and cautious procurement by paper mills [7] Strategy - Neutral. The current fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and the short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [8]