新能源及有色金属日报：下游仍以刚需采购为主，铅价陷震荡格局-20250904

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] 2. Report's Core View - The lead market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply side is affected by the continuous decline in TC prices and an increase in smelter maintenance. On the demand side, dealers' inventory reduction is slow, and their procurement willingness is low, with some enterprises accumulating finished - product inventory. With the upcoming implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles in September and the Middle East tariff policy, the impact on consumption is uncertain. Therefore, the lead price is expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with the volatility range likely between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On December 19, 2024, the LME lead spot premium was -$31.73/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,700 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -50 yuan/ton to 50.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price remained unchanged at 16,950 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price changed by -75 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by -50 yuan/ton to 9,925 yuan/ton, the price of waste white - shell batteries changed by -50 yuan/ton to 9,525 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black - shell batteries changed by -50 yuan/ton to 9,975 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On December 19, 2024, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,795 yuan/ton, closed at 16,730 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 28,827 lots, a decrease of 11,102 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 43,709 lots, a decrease of 3,629 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,810 yuan/ton and a low of 16,660 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,865 yuan/ton and closed at 16,860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the afternoon close. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In the Henan region, holders quoted at par with the SMM1 lead average price or at a discount of 140 - 120 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2510 contract. In the Hunan region, most lead smelters quoted at a discount of 50 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead, and some holders quoted at a discount of 160 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2510 contract. In the Yunnan region, holders quoted at a discount of over 200 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead. Although the lead futures price strengthened slightly, downstream buyers mainly made purchases based on rigid demand, and the overall trading in the spot market was weak [2] Inventory - On December 19, 2024, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 48,000 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons compared to the same period last week. As of September 3, the LME lead inventory was 234,700 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [4]