CNS(SH:601098) Guotou Securities·2025-09-04 06:02Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating to the company, with a target price of 15.36 CNY based on a 16x PE for 2025 [5][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.335 billion CNY for H1 2025, a decrease of 8.09% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 31.46% to 1.017 billion CNY [1]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to the company's strategic reduction in low-margin bulk business and a drop in traditional e-commerce sales [1]. - The gross margin improved to 45.84%, up 1.49 percentage points from 2024, due to lower raw material prices [1]. - The company demonstrated strong cost control, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios decreasing by 1.83, 0.41, and 0.18 percentage points, respectively, compared to 2024 [1]. Business Structure and Market Position - The company operates nine publishing houses, five of which are among the top 100 in the country, and has a leading position in the mass-market book sector [2]. - In H1 2025, the company achieved a market share of 5.25% in the national book retail market, ranking second, and a 6.07% share in the new book retail market, ranking first [2]. - The company is actively exploring innovative business models in the education services market, including promoting campus reading and expanding into vocational education [2]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.1 CNY per share, totaling 180 million CNY, continuing its trend of high dividend payouts [3]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 13.32 billion CNY, 13.45 billion CNY, and 13.60 billion CNY, with net profits projected at 1.727 billion CNY, 1.779 billion CNY, and 1.891 billion CNY, respectively [11][12]. - The overall gross margin is expected to be 44.53%, 44.90%, and 45.06% for 2025-2027 [10]. Valuation and Market Comparison - The company is positioned as a leading publishing group with a significant revenue scale, justifying a valuation premium compared to peers [13]. - The average PE of comparable companies is 12.52, while the company is valued at 16 times PE for 2025 [13][14].