日度策略参考-20250904

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold [1] - Bearish: Iron Ore, Ferrous Metals, Steel, Coke, Anthracite, Cotton (Long - term), Sugar, Rapeseed Oil (Cautious), Hogs [1] - Sideways: Stock Index Futures (Short - term opportunity), Treasury Bonds, Silver, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Carbonate Lithium, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Cotton (Short - term), Corn, Soybeans, Pulp, Logs, Fuel Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber, Styrene, Urea, PVC, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term stock index futures' discount widens again, combined with liquidity drive, short - term index adjustment may bring long - position layout opportunities [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upside [1] - Safe - haven sentiment and interest rate cut expectations boost the gold price [1] - Fed's interest rate cut expectations and potential copper supply tightness may push up copper prices [1] - Various factors lead to different price trends in different commodities, including supply - demand relationships, inventory levels, macro - economic conditions, and policy expectations [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - Stock Index Futures: Short - term adjustment may offer long - position opportunities due to discount widening and liquidity drive [1] - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are positive, but central bank's interest rate risk warning restricts upside [1] Precious Metals - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment and interest rate cut expectations drive the price up, may run at a high level with amplified volatility risk [1] - Silver: Short - term may run at a high level with amplified volatility risk [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Fed's interest rate cut expectations and potential supply tightness may lead to a stronger price [1] - Aluminum: Domestic consumption off - season pressures downstream demand, but Fed's interest rate cut expectations lead to a sideways movement [1] - Alumina: High production and inventory, weak fundamentals, pay attention to long - position opportunities in far - month contracts [1] - Zinc: Social inventory increase pressures the price, but LME inventory decline and macro - support limit the downside, expected to be strongly sideways [1] - Nickel: Short - term follows the macro - trend, pay attention to supply and macro - changes, wait for short - selling opportunities, long - term surplus pressure exists [1] - Stainless Steel: Raw material prices rise, social inventory stabilizes, short - term sideways, wait for short - selling opportunities, take profit on cash - futures arbitrage [1] - Tin: Seasonal maintenance in Yunnan and improved macro - sentiment lead to a strong sideways movement [1] Industrial Metals - Industrial Silicon: Supply resumes in the southwest and northwest, high hedging pressure, polysilicon production cut expected, long - term capacity reduction expected [1] - Polysilicon: Terminal installation willingness is low, but profit is considerable [1] - Carbonate Lithium: Resource disturbances, large short - term downstream replenishment, limited subsequent replenishment space [1] Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: Valuation returns to neutral, industrial drive is unclear, macro - drive is warm [1] - Iron Ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, far - month has upward potential, long - term anti - involution, short - term weak fundamentals [1] - Steel: Supply surplus pressure exists, price is under pressure [1] - Coke and Anthracite: Market suppresses steel prices to balance supply and demand, coal and coke fundamentals weaken [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil and Soybean Oil: Fourth - quarter bullish expectations exist, but short - term callback, expected to be sideways [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Affected by ICE rapeseed price decline, wait and see [1] - Cotton: Short - term range - bound, long - term supply pressure exists [1] - Sugar: Supply is loosening, price increase is under pressure, narrow - range sideways [1] - Corn: Short - term rebound is limited, long - term downward space exists, short on rallies [1] - Soybeans: Supply - demand balance is tight, import cost supports, short - term sideways, long on dips [1] - Pulp: Consider 11 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [1] - Logs: Expected to oscillate within the range of 820 - 840 yuan/m³ [1] - Hogs: Supply is increasing, cost is decreasing [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ meeting expectations, and Fed's interest rate cut expectations affect the price [1] - Fuel Oil: Short - term follows crude oil, long - term demand may be falsified [1] - BR Rubber: Pay attention to inventory levels and autumn device maintenance [1] - PTA: Production recovers, profit is repaired, but some downstream device maintenance is expected [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Overseas arrivals decrease, but hedging positions increase after price rise [1] - Short - fiber: Factory maintenance increases, basis is high, and cost is strong [1] - Styrene: Market rumors affect the price, trading volume weakens after the price rises [1] - Urea: Export sentiment eases, domestic demand is insufficient, but there is support [1] - PVC: Maintenance support is limited, order demand is rigid, price is sideways and weak [1] - LPG: International oil price and domestic market factors affect the price, downstream profit deterioration has a negative feedback [1] Others - Container Shipping to Europe: September supply exceeds the same - period level, freight rate is declining [1]