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渤海证券研究所晨会纪要(2025.09.04)-20250904
BOHAI SECURITIES·2025-09-04 07:02

Group 1: Metal Industry Insights - The steel industry is expected to see a rebound in demand in September, traditionally a peak consumption month, with potential price stability due to supply constraints from production limits and maintenance in regions like Tangshan [2][4] - Copper prices are supported by tight supply and potential demand recovery, with a focus on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting which may influence price movements [2][5] - Aluminum prices are anticipated to remain stable, with demand expected to improve in the peak season, while supply is expected to hold steady [2][5] - Gold prices may see a moderate increase if inflation data meets expectations and employment data is weak, particularly ahead of the Federal Reserve's September meeting [3][7] - The rare earth market is experiencing increased overseas demand due to export controls, with potential price growth in September if overall demand remains strong [4][7] Group 2: Investment Strategies - For the steel sector, the "anti-involution" policy is expected to gradually improve the oversupply situation, with a focus on green and low-carbon transformation as a key driver for future growth [4][5] - In the copper sector, the tight supply situation is expected to support prices, and the "anti-involution" policy may improve the processing sector, making it a favorable investment area [5] - The aluminum sector is projected to benefit from new project capacities and supportive policies, with a recommendation to focus on companies with strong resource guarantees and environmental standards [5] - The rare earth sector is viewed positively due to regulatory changes and the strategic value of resources, with a recommendation to focus on companies involved in resource extraction and processing [7] Group 3: Machinery and Equipment Sector - The machinery and equipment sector has shown strong performance, with the industry index rising 12.67% from August 3 to September 2, outperforming the broader market [8] - The demand for construction machinery is expected to continue growing due to ongoing infrastructure projects and improved market conditions, particularly in the domestic market [8][9] - The humanoid robotics sector is gaining traction with advancements in computing platforms, indicating a critical phase for industry development and investment opportunities [9]