Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week (August 25 - August 29), the domestic oil and fat futures prices declined overall, with the palm oil main contract dropping 2.8% and the soybean oil and rapeseed oil main contracts falling over 1%. Spot prices were under pressure. Palm oil may experience shock and correction; soybean oil will have short - term shock adjustment; rapeseed oil will have short - term shock [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Observation Supply - Palm oil: According to MPOA, the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 20 increased by 3.03%. SPPOMA data showed that from August 1 - 25, 2025, the yield per unit decreased by 3.26% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 1.21% month - on - month. - Soybean oil: As of August 29, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.4254 million tons, the operating rate was 68.18%, and the soybean oil production was 460,800 tons. - Rapeseed oil: As of August 29, the rapeseed oil production of coastal oil mills was 18,500 tons, and the production decreased with the reduction of rapeseed crushing volume [5] Demand - Palm oil: As of August 29, the total transaction volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key national oil mills this week was 7,864 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,298 tons, or 41.28%. - Soybean oil: As of August 29, the domestic soybean oil trading volume was 168,800 tons, with an average daily trading volume of 33,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34.37%. - Rapeseed oil: As of August 29, the pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 19,450 tons, a week - on - week increase of 27 tons [5] Inventory - Palm oil: As of August 29, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 610,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,000 tons, or 4.8%. - Soybean oil: As of August 29, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.2388 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 52,800 tons, or 4.45%. - Rapeseed oil: The rapeseed oil inventory was 658,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.65% [5] 2. Cost and Profit - As of August 29, the FOB price of 24 - degree Malaysian palm oil was $1,087.5 per ton; the import CIF price was $1,112 per ton, a week - on - week decrease of $17 per ton; the import cost price was 9,479 yuan per ton; the hedging profit was - 103 yuan per ton [6] 3. Overseas Oil and Fat Information - Malaysian palm oil: From August 1 - 25, the export volume increased by 10.9% compared with the same period last month. The Malaysian government is seeking to exempt crude palm kernel oil and refined palm kernel oil from the 5% sales and service tax. The US has agreed in principle to exclude Indonesian palm oil from the 19% tariff, but no timetable has been set. - Brazilian biodiesel: Due to the increase in the blending ratio, the biodiesel demand in Brazil in 2025 has been adjusted from 9.6 million cubic meters to 9.9 million cubic meters, and then slightly adjusted down to 9.8 million cubic meters, still an 8.9% increase compared with 2024. - Canadian rapeseed: As of the week of August 17, the export volume decreased by 64.34% week - on - week to 90,800 tons. From August 1 - 17, 2025, the export volume was 355,900 tons, a 46.16% decrease compared with the same period last year. As of August 17, the commercial inventory was 793,400 tons [8][9] 4. Market Review Palm oil - The SPPOMA data showed that from August 1 - 25, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 3.26% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 1.21% month - on - month. The export in August increased month - on - month. The US agreed in principle to exclude Indonesian palm oil from the 19% tariff. Indian festival stocking and Indonesian biodiesel policy support demand. On Friday, the weakening of international oil and fat and crude oil prices dragged down domestic oils and fats, leading to shock and correction [11] Soybean oil - The US EPA's exemption decision for small refineries caused the US soybean oil price to fall. Domestic oil mills maintained a high operating rate, with high - level production and increasing inventory pressure. However, the start of the school year and the Mid - Autumn Festival are expected to relieve the inventory pressure. China has not purchased US soybeans yet, and attention should be paid to China - US trade negotiations. Short - term shock adjustment is expected [11] Rapeseed oil - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed is expected to reduce imports. China is purchasing Australian new - crop rapeseed, which is expected to be shipped from November to December. Domestic rapeseed oil production is at a low level, and the inventory is at a high level year - on - year, still under pressure. Attention should be paid to China - Canada relations, and short - term shock is expected [12] 5. Palm Oil Data Weekly Tracking Production and Inventory in Malaysia - In July 2025, the Malaysian palm oil production was 1.8124 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.09%, and the inventory was 2.1133 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.02%, at a high level year - on - year [16] Exports in Malaysia - According to MPOB, the Malaysian palm oil export volume in July was 1.3091 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.82%. SGS data showed that from August 1 - 20, the export volume was 667,278 tons, a month - on - month increase of 37.1%. From August 1 - 25, ITS and Amspec data showed a month - on - month increase of 10.9% and 16.4% respectively [19] Domestic Palm Oil Import and Inventory - In July 2025, the palm oil import volume was 180,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 48.57%, and the cumulative import volume from January to July was 1.25 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%. As of August 29, the domestic palm oil commercial inventory was 610,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,000 tons, at a high level within the year [25][26] Domestic Palm Oil Consumption - In July, the domestic palm oil consumption was 207,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29,600 tons [27] Import Cost and Profit - As of August 29, the import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 24 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 54 yuan per ton [22] 6. Soybean Oil Data Weekly Tracking - As of August 29, the soybean oil production was 460,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,500 tons, at a high level year - on - year. The commercial inventory was 1.2388 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 52,800 tons, or 4.45%. In July, the export volume was 34,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,700 tons [31][32][33] 7. Rapeseed Oil Data Weekly Tracking - As of August 29, the rapeseed oil production of coastal oil mills was 18,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,200 tons, at a relatively low level year - on - year. The inventory was 658,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25,600 tons, at a high level year - on - year [36]
油脂周度行情观察-20250904
Hong Ye Qi Huo·2025-09-04 06:59