周期主题基金研究框架及产品优选

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report constructs an active cycle-themed fund pool, classifies cycle-themed funds into balanced cycle funds and single-track cycle funds based on historical allocations, and selects high-quality funds through a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. It is recommended to pay attention to funds such as Dacheng Industry Trend, HSBC Jintrust Small and Medium Cap, and Qianhai Kaiyuan Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Core Resources [1]. - The main logics include classifying and labeling cycle-themed funds according to historical allocations, quantitatively and qualitatively selecting balanced and single-track cycle funds, and conducting in-depth analyses of the selected cycle-themed funds [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cycle Industry Theme Fund Sample Pool - Selection Criteria: The report selects ordinary stock funds, partial equity hybrid funds, flexible allocation funds, and balanced hybrid funds from the Wind fund classification, with an average stock position of no less than 60% in the past four quarters, a fund establishment time of over two years, a fund size of no less than 200 million yuan, and a recent two-report period average position of no less than 50% in a certain major industry, with the most recent period being over 50% [13]. - Sample Pool Results: 127 cycle-themed funds are screened out, including 66 with a size of no less than 200 million yuan. These 66 funds cover 31 public fund managers, 44 main fund managers, and have a total scale of 8.1543 billion yuan. Among them, there is 1 fund with a size of over 500 million yuan, and 10 funds with a size of over 200 million yuan [14][15]. - Analysis by Fund Manager and Fund Company: Fund managers such as Han Chuang of Dacheng, Lin Yingrui of GF, Hu Xiao/Li Jing of Dongfanghong, and Yang Jinjin of Jiaoyin manage cycle-themed funds with a scale of over 500 million yuan. Dacheng Fund has the largest scale, with 7 cycle-themed funds totaling 1.4487 billion yuan, followed by GF Fund and Dongfanghong Asset Management [17]. 3.2 Cycle Industry Theme Fund Sample Pool - Fund Classification: Cycle-themed funds are divided into single-track cycle funds and balanced cycle funds based on whether they focus on a single cycle track. Balanced cycle funds are further divided into long-term cycle theme funds, cycle theme funds, and recent cycle style funds, and are labeled according to factors such as position flexibility, investment in Hong Kong stocks, and turnover rate [21][22]. - Quantitative and Qualitative Selection Methods: Quantitatively, funds with comprehensive scores in the top 35% in the past one and three years are selected based on Western Securities' active equity fund performance evaluation system. Qualitatively, factors such as fund manager performance consistency, fund returns and maximum drawdowns in different periods, fund manager investment years, background, and focus on the cycle sector are considered [25][26]. - Selected Fund Pool: Five balanced cycle funds and five single-track cycle funds are selected, including Dacheng Industry Trend, HSBC Jintrust Small and Medium Cap, and Qianhai Kaiyuan Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Core Resources [27]. 3.3 In-depth Analysis of Selected Cycle Theme Funds 3.3.1 In-depth Analysis of Balanced Selected Cycle Theme Funds - Industry Allocation: Dacheng Industry Trend and HSBC Jintrust Small and Medium Cap mainly allocate to non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals; Boshi Growth Selection and China Europe Rongheng Balance mainly allocate to non-ferrous metals and petroleum and petrochemicals; Harvest Cycle Selection mainly allocates to transportation and public utilities. The cycle position averages of these funds in different periods are provided, and the cycle sector proportions in 25Q2 are estimated [30][31]. - Operation Characteristics: The funds have high positions, with differences in Hong Kong stock allocations. They also show differences in industry concentration, individual stock concentration, number of holdings, turnover rate, and price-to-earnings ratio, with investment styles varying significantly [38][39]. 3.3.2 In-depth Analysis of Single-track Selected Cycle Theme Funds - Industry Allocation: Qianhai Kaiyuan Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Core Resources mainly focuses on magnetic materials, rare earths, and gold; Chuangjin Hexin Resources Theme mainly focuses on copper, gold, aluminum, lead-zinc, and thermal coal; Huabao Resources Preferred mainly focuses on copper, thermal coal, lithium, aluminum, and civil explosive products; Invesco Great Wall Pillar Industry mainly focuses on copper, gold, lead-zinc, and aluminum; ICBC Dividend Optimized mainly focuses on gas, wind power generation, and thermal power generation. The cycle position averages of these funds in different periods are provided [48][49]. - Operation Characteristics: These funds show differences in industry allocation, with some focusing on non-ferrous metals and others on energy and power sectors. They also show differences in cycle sector allocation and changes in different periods [52][53].