尿素日报：尿素小幅累库，行情短期僵持-20250904

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: Short - term UR01 - 05 positive spread can trade on fluctuations; after the export window period, UR01 - 05 reverse spread on high [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Urea prices are in a short - term stalemate with slight inventory build - up. Recent price cuts by manufacturers led to improved short - term transactions, but the sustainability is weak. The market is waiting for the results of Indian tenders. Some regions' agricultural autumn fertilizer demand is starting, while industrial demand is weak due to factors like the military parade. Urea production is at a high level but may decline slightly this week due to increased maintenance. In the long - term, supply and demand are still relatively loose with new capacity coming online. Coal - based urea profits are acceptable, and the cost support is average. The export window in September is driving continuous exports and accelerating port inventory accumulation [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - Data on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread are presented [6][7][8][17][18] 3.2 Urea Production - Information on urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume is provided [20][25] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Details about production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization, coal - based capacity utilization, and gas - based capacity utilization are given [23][28][31][36] 3.4 Urea Foreign Market Prices and Export Profits - Data on urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, and the differences between them, as well as urea export profit and disk export profit are shown [33][35][39][41][44] 3.5 Urea Downstream Capacity Utilization and Orders - Information on compound fertilizer capacity utilization, melamine capacity utilization, and urea enterprise pre - received order days is provided [50][51][52] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Data on upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, Hebei urea downstream manufacturers' raw material inventory days, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract holding volume, and main - contract trading volume are presented [55][58][61]