化工日报：市场氛围不佳，EG延续弱势-20250904

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. There is a loose balance in the balance sheet from August to September, with little supply - demand contradiction. Pay attention to cost changes under low inventory [3] Core View - The market atmosphere is poor, and EG continues to be weak. The futures and spot prices of EG have declined, production profits have decreased, and inventory has decreased. The domestic supply of ethylene glycol is expected to be stable at a high level in the short term, with a possible decline in synthetic gas load in September. Overseas supply has suffered many losses, and the import volume from September to October may be revised down. The demand shows signs of recovery, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable with a slight increase. The balance sheet from August to September is in a loose balance, with little supply - demand contradiction [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4,331 yuan/ton (a change of - 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of - 0.18%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,434 yuan/ton (a change of - 19 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of - 0.43%), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 89 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 3 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was - 60 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 10 US dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - made syngas - made EG was - 91 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 51 yuan/ton). The domestic ethylene glycol load has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable at a high level in the short term, and the synthetic gas load may decline in September [1][2] International Spread - No relevant data provided in the given text Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - The current demand shows signs of recovery, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable with a slight increase. Pay attention to the time of concentrated order placement in the later stage [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 449,000 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 51,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 413,000 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 85,000 tons). The actual arrival volume at the main ports last week was 50,000 tons, and the arrival volume was low. The port inventory decreased last week. The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is 98,000 tons, and the arrival volume is neutral [1]