甲醇日报：港口延续快速累库，内地工厂库存回建-20250904

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The port inventory continued to rise rapidly on Wednesday, especially in the Jiangsu region, a trading hub. The overseas methanol production is still at a high level, and the arrival pressure in China in September remains high, awaiting the resumption of downstream MTO Xingxing in early September. The pattern of weak ports and strong inland areas persists, and the window for ports to flow back to southern Shandong has opened. The downside space depends on the inland performance. In the inland areas, the centralized maintenance period of coal - based methanol has passed, the production of coal - based methanol has further increased, the inland factory inventory has bottomed out and rebounded, and the inland supply - demand may weaken marginally. Among traditional downstream industries, the pending orders have declined, the production of MTBE and acetic acid has decreased, and the formaldehyde production is still at a low level [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis and the main contract, basis of spot - main futures in different regions, and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 [6][21] 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and import spreads such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, as well as price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [26][27] 3.3 Methanol Production and Inventory - The total port inventory of methanol, MTO/P production rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol production rate (including integrated) are presented. The port inventory increased rapidly, with the total port inventory at 1,427,655 tons (+127,905 tons), and the inland factory inventory also increased, with the inland factory inventory at 341,083 tons (+7,690 tons) [2][22] 3.4 Regional Price Differences - It shows price differences between different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. For example, the Lubei - Northwest - 280 price difference is - 43 yuan/ton (-15 yuan/ton) [22][39] 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display the production profits of traditional downstream industries, including the production profit of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [58][60] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging - Inter - period: Wait and see - Cross - variety: Wait and see [3]