铝周报：宏观偏强现货不佳，沪铝延续震荡-20250904

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - environment, trade frictions, and inventory changes. Short - term aluminum prices may continue to fluctuate, and future volatility may increase [1][2] Directory Summaries Macroeconomic and Market Environment - The US court declared Trump's tariff policy illegal, intensifying trade frictions between the US, Europe, and China, leading to rising risk - aversion sentiment and surges in gold and silver prices. The independence of the Federal Reserve is questioned, with a high probability of a rate cut on the 17th, causing the US dollar to fall. In China, major events are unfolding, and market sentiment is optimistic [1] Aluminum Market Conditions - Aluminum spot demand is insufficient, resulting in declines in Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, and spot aluminum prices. This week, Shanghai aluminum fell, and the spot changed to a discount of - 30 yuan. After today's decline, spot trading improved slightly [1] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventories and SHFE aluminum inventories increased significantly this week, and LME spot inventories also rose, with a LME spot premium of 3 dollars. The RMB exchange rate rose sharply this week, and the Shanghai - LME ratio of aluminum prices dropped to 7.93 [1] Technical and Market Sentiment - Crude oil rose slightly today, while LME aluminum fell slightly, trading around $2612. Shanghai aluminum also fell slightly, closing at 20645, with a neutral technical pattern. Shanghai aluminum's trading volume increased while its open interest decreased, indicating cautious market sentiment [2] Market Trends and Influencing Factors - The anti - involution hype in the alumina market has significantly cooled down, and this round of speculation may end. Currently in the off - season, spot demand is insufficient. The Russia - Ukraine situation has a significant impact on the market [2]