化债进行时系列：城投化债：两年战果复盘、28年展望

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After two years of debt reduction, significant achievements have been made. Local debts are accelerating towards the on - balance - sheet, with fiscal policy taking over from urban investment in 2025. Urban investment focuses on exiting platforms, stabilizing leverage, adjusting structure, and reducing costs to further mitigate risks. After 2028, urban investment bonds are likely to continue to be redeemed at par. Currently, the spread of urban investment bonds is at a low level, and the cost - effectiveness of undifferentiated sinking is not high. It is recommended to select allocation directions based on risk indicators [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 How Has the Overall Pattern of Local Debt Changed After Two Years of Debt Reduction? - The "front door" is opened wide and the "back door" is blocked, with local debts accelerating towards the on - balance - sheet. Since 2019, the issuance of local government bonds has accelerated, with an annual growth rate of over 15%. The growth rate of urban investment debt has shown a fluctuating downward trend in the past decade, reaching a record low of 3.8% in 2024. By the end of 2024, the proportion of on - balance - sheet government debt had risen to 43.72% [2][15]. - In 2024, the expansion of urban investment slowed down, and in 2025, fiscal policy took over from urban investment. In 2020, the incremental local debt (urban investment + local special bonds) was 10.63 trillion yuan, but the combined increment has not exceeded 10 trillion yuan since then. In 2025, the fiscal deficit increased by 1.6 trillion yuan compared to the previous year. The incremental debt of local governments and urban investment platforms is expected to approach 10 trillion yuan, and the proportion of on - balance - sheet government debt may exceed 45% by the end of the year [3][16]. 3.2 How to View the Urban Investment Risks After 2028? - Risk prevention has become more extensive, evolving from preventing defaults of urban investment bonds to preventing risks of state - owned enterprises. Urban investment is likely to become a state - owned enterprise under the supervision of local state - owned assets supervision and administration commissions, and is unlikely to default on its bonds [20][21]. - From the perspective of assets and liabilities, it is still difficult to completely separate urban investment from local governments. Urban investment still holds a large amount of public - welfare or quasi - public - welfare assets, and the relationship between them remains close [21]. - From the perspective of liquidity, the probability of risk is reduced. After the clearance of hidden debts and the exit from platforms, banks and insurance may open up financing channels for urban investment, and the actual risk may decline [22]. 3.3 What Are the Differences in Urban Investment Financing Among Provinces? 3.3.1 Overall Tightening, with Slight Differences Between Key and Non - key Provinces - The primary issuance review has not been relaxed, and it is difficult for urban investment to increase new financing. Since March 2025, the net financing of urban investment bonds has turned negative. Key provinces have a more significant net outflow, while some non - key provinces such as Shandong and Guangdong still have new increases [23]. 3.3.2 The Proportion of Bank Loans Has Increased, and Some Provinces Are Seeking Increases in Non - standard Financing - As of the end of March 2025, the proportion of bank loans has increased in 18 provinces, with 8 provinces including Ningxia and Hainan having an increase of over 3 percentage points. In non - key provinces, Anhui and Henan have an increase in the proportion of non - standard financing of over 1 percentage point [25]. 3.4 Which Regions Are Facing Increasing Debt Risks? 3.4.1 Macro - level: At the Minsky Moment, the Interest Coverage Ratios of 10 Provinces and Cities Are Less Than 1 - Due to the decline in land sales, although local interest payments have decreased, as of Q1 2025, the government fund revenues of 10 provinces and cities, including Yunnan and Guangxi, have an interest coverage ratio of less than 1 for full - scale debt interest [29][33]. 3.4.2 Micro - level: The Risks in Some Provinces Have Worsened - The debt risks in Henan, Jilin, Anhui, and Hubei have increased compared to before debt reduction. Shandong's overall risk still deserves attention [29]. - In terms of the proportion of risk urban investment platforms, 20 provinces have improved their debt risks, 7 have remained unchanged, and 4 have increased their risks [30]. 3.5 Which Regions Have Achieved Remarkable Results in Debt Reduction? 3.5.1 Debt Reduction Progress - The progress of hidden debt resolution has exceeded half. Jilin, Jiangsu, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang have at least over 10 cities or districts announcing the full clearance of hidden debts [47]. 3.5.2 Stock Bond Scale - As of August 28, 2025, the stock of urban investment bonds was 15.14 trillion yuan, a decrease of 84.321 billion yuan compared to the beginning of the year. Jiangsu, Hunan, Tianjin, and Guizhou have the largest reduction in the stock of urban investment bonds [53]. 3.5.3 Interest Payments - The interest payments of urban investment bonds in some economically strong provinces and provinces receiving more debt reduction support have decreased significantly. Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Tianjin, Hunan, and Shandong have a large decline in interest payments [56]. 3.6 How to View Urban Investment Bonds from the Perspective of Risk Premium? - By constructing a short - term risk indicator (proportion of risk urban investment platforms) and a medium - long - term risk indicator (risk qualification evaluation score), provinces are classified as follows: - Both indicators cross the line (proportion of risk platforms > 20%, risk qualification evaluation score < 40): Guangxi, Tianjin, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Henan, Jilin, Yunnan, Qinghai, Guizhou. Caution is needed for these regions [59]. - One of the two indicators crosses the line: Shandong, Tibet, Ningxia, Jiangxi, Chongqing, Shaanxi. It is recommended to adopt sinking + duration control when exploring returns in these 6 provinces [59][61]. - Neither indicator crosses the line: Shanghai, Beijing, Shanxi, Hainan, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Fujian, Hebei, Jiangsu, Xinjiang, Anhui, Heilongjiang, Hubei, Hunan, Sichuan, Liaoning. The overall risk in these regions is relatively low, but the spread is generally less than 50bp, with limited room for exploration [61].