铜周报：市场情绪乐观，铜价走势偏强-20250904

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report The market sentiment is optimistic, and copper prices are trending strongly. With the Fed's expected interest rate cut and positive domestic sentiment, the copper market is likely to be volatile and strong in the near term. However, there are issues such as high US copper inventories and insufficient medium - term demand, and poor spot demand for Shanghai copper during the off - season [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Information Market Situation - The US court declared Trump's tariff policy illegal, increasing trade frictions between the US, Europe, and China, leading to rising risk - aversion sentiment, and sharp increases in gold, silver, and some non - ferrous metals including copper and nickel. The Fed's independence is questioned, and a rate cut is likely on the 17th, causing the US dollar to fall [1] - Domestic major events are unfolding, with an optimistic market sentiment. Gold, silver, and most non - ferrous metals are rising. Shanghai copper, LME copper, and domestic spot copper are all up [1] Price and Basis - Shanghai copper closed at 79,780, and the spot price was 80,090, with an intraday high - then - low movement and a spot premium of 310 points. The spot basis premium rose to 235 points, but spot trading was poor [1] - The LME spot discount slightly widened to - 80 US dollars this week, indicating general foreign spot demand [1] Inventory - US copper and LME copper inventories continued to rise this week, while Shanghai copper inventory decreased slightly, suggesting general spot demand [1] Exchange Rate and Premium - The RMB exchange rate rose sharply this week, and the Yangshan copper premium slightly increased to 56.5 US dollars, indicating a slight improvement in domestic spot demand [1] Ratio - The LME - Shanghai copper ratio dropped to 8.04, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper slightly increased to 213 points, with the foreign ratio slightly higher than the domestic one [1] Technical Analysis - LME copper rose slightly, trading around 9,935 US dollars. Shanghai copper opened and closed higher, with a strong technical pattern. Both trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper increased, showing an optimistic market sentiment [2] Supply - Demand Situation - US copper inventories are extremely high, with insufficient medium - term demand. Spot demand for Shanghai copper is poor during the off - season [2] 4. Copper Market Indicator Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount (yuan/ton) | Yangshan Copper Premium (US dollars/ton) | LME Copper - Futures - Spot Spread | Main Contract Shanghai - London Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Aug 26 | 7.1533 | 630 | 55 | | - 78 | 8.09 | | Aug 27 | 7.1523 | 440 | 55 | | - 85 | 8.08 | | Aug 28 | 7.1203 | 290 | 56.5 | | - 90 | 8.10 | | Aug 29 | 7.1223 | 60 | 56.5 | | - 83 | 8.06 | | Sep 1 | 7.1296 | 310 | 56.5 | | - 80 | 8.04 | [3]