宏观冷却，有色板块走弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Today, copper prices declined with reduced positions, and the main contract price fell below the 80,000 mark. The domestic market has cooled significantly, with obvious capital outflows in both the equity and commodity markets. As the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" arrive, industrial support will strengthen. Short - term attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [4]. - Aluminum: Aluminum prices plunged in the morning and then fluctuated within a narrow range throughout the day, with the position volume continuously decreasing. The domestic market has cooled, and there are capital outflows in the equity and commodity markets. In the industry, the mid - stream electrolytic aluminum inventory is continuously increasing, while the aluminum rod inventory is slowly decreasing. As China enters the peak industrial seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", industrial support is expected to continuously strengthen. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average when the aluminum price drops [5]. - Nickel: Nickel prices showed a downward trend today, with a slight decrease in the position volume. Non - ferrous metals generally declined at the macro level. At the industrial level, the impact of the demonstration in Indonesia has been digested by the market. In the short term, the weakening macro environment and the digestion of industrial disturbances have led to the decline of nickel prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 120,000 mark [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Copper: According to SMM, the weekly operating rate of the enameled wire industry decreased slightly by 0.06 percentage points to 78.4% compared with the previous week, and new orders also decreased by 0.81 percentage points. Currently, the industry has not shown signs of a peak season. Weak demand and high copper prices are intertwined, and both the operating rate and orders continue to decline [8]. - Nickel: Today, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 120,700 - 123,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 1,900 - 2,200 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 200 - 200 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - Copper: The report provides charts of copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, copper monthly spread, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [10][12][13]. - Aluminum: The report provides charts of aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX) [21][23][25]. - Nickel: The report provides charts of nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [33][36][37].