Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Rebar: The main contract's futures price fluctuated, recording a daily decline of 0.06% with increasing volume and decreasing open interest. Currently, both supply and demand have weakened, the fundamentals have not improved, inventory has continued to increase, and steel prices are under pressure. With the relatively positive peak - season expectation and rising costs, steel prices will continue to oscillate and search for a bottom, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - Hot - rolled coil: The main contract's futures price fluctuated, recording a daily increase of 0.24% with increasing volume and open interest. At present, production has decreased due to production restrictions, but it can recover quickly. On the contrary, demand resilience is weakening, and the contradiction in the hot - rolled coil industry is accumulating. Inventory growth has expanded, and steel prices are still under pressure. The relatively positive factors are the peak - season expectation and cost situation, and the short - term trend will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - Iron ore: The main contract's futures price rose strongly, recording a daily increase of 1.67% with increasing volume and open interest. Currently, iron ore demand is declining while supply is increasing. The fundamentals of iron ore are expected to weaken, and high - valued ore prices are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factors are the peak - season expectation and support from variety arbitrage funds. Ore prices will maintain a high - level oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to steel price performance [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China held its second group leader meeting to strengthen the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies and promote the stable and healthy development of the bond market [6]. - The personal mortgage loans of the six major state - owned banks shrank by 10.78 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, and the early repayment wave has eased compared with last year. Some banks no longer focus on mortgage business [7]. - Brazil imposed a 5 - year anti - dumping duty on Chinese tin - plated and chrome - plated steel coils, with the duty ranging from 284.34 to 499.35 US dollars per ton [8]. 2. Spot Market - Steel products: The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai and Tianjin are 3,200 yuan, with a national average of 3,280 yuan. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai and Tianjin are 3,350 yuan and 3,290 yuan respectively, with a national average of 3,419 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet is 2,960 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,070 yuan. The coil - rebar price difference is 150 yuan, and the rebar - scrap price difference is 1,130 yuan [9]. - Iron ore: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 785 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate is also 785 yuan. The ocean freight from Australia is 10.06 yuan, and from Brazil is 24.29 yuan. The SGX swap price (current month) is 103.34 yuan, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) is 103.60 yuan [9]. 3. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract is 3,117 yuan, with a decline of 0.06%. The trading volume is 1,231,326 lots, an increase of 62,178 lots, and the open interest is 1,736,432 lots, a decrease of 18,381 lots [13]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract is 3,313 yuan, with an increase of 0.24%. The trading volume is 509,314 lots, an increase of 138,698 lots, and the open interest is 1,283,425 lots, an increase of 34,343 lots [13]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract is 791.5 yuan, with an increase of 1.67%. The trading volume is 392,627 lots, an increase of 103,429 lots, and the open interest is 506,983 lots, an increase of 41,053 lots [13]. 4. Related Charts - Steel inventory: There are charts showing the weekly changes, total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil [16][18][22]. - Iron ore inventory: There are charts showing the inventory of 45 ports in China, seasonal inventory, inventory of 247 steel mills, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory [21][25][27]. - Steel mill production: There are charts showing the blast furnace start - up rate and capacity utilization of 247 sample steel mills, the start - up rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the profitability of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills, and the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills [31][33][34]. 5. Future Outlook - Rebar: The supply - demand pattern has changed little. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, and the weekly output has decreased by 1.88 tons. Demand is also weak, and the weekly apparent demand has slightly decreased. With unchanged fundamentals and increasing inventory, steel prices will continue to oscillate and search for a bottom, and attention should be paid to demand performance [35]. - Hot - rolled coil: Both supply and demand are weakening. During the parade, production was restricted, and the weekly output decreased by 10.50 tons. Demand has also declined, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 15.36 tons. The short - term trend will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [36]. - Iron ore: Both supply and demand are weakening. Steel mill production is weakening, and ore demand is expected to decline. At the same time, domestic port arrivals are increasing, and overseas supply is high. Ore prices are prone to pressure and will maintain a high - level oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to steel price performance [37].
钢材、铁矿石日报：基本面表现各异，钢矿强弱分化-20250904
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-09-04 09:46