能源专题报告：印尼生物燃料市场展望

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Indonesia's biofuel industry shows initial development potential under policy guidance but faces multiple challenges, including policy implementation, raw material supply, production capacity, and subsidy mechanisms [97][98][99] - The development of the biofuel industry is crucial for Indonesia to fulfill climate commitments, ensure energy security, reduce import dependence, and promote economic development [13][93][94] - The biofuel industry is expected to play an increasingly important role in Indonesia's energy structure, with different sub - sectors having different development prospects and challenges [93][98][99] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Indonesia Biofuel Policy Framework 3.1.1 Policy Background - Indonesia aims to meet increasing energy demand and fulfill international climate commitments through biofuel development, driven by both carbon reduction and energy security needs [11][12][13] - Social unrest in Indonesia may indirectly affect the biofuel industry, including policy implementation delays, raw material supply disruptions, and investment uncertainties [15] 3.1.2 Policy Start and Legislative Basis - Indonesia started its national - level biofuel policy in 2006 and has since issued a series of regulations and presidential decrees. The 2024 No. 79 Government Regulation is expected to replace the old one [16] - The current National Energy Policy sets targets for the proportion of renewable energy consumption, and biofuel is expected to contribute significantly to these targets [17][18] 3.1.3 Mandatory Blending Plan and Market Price Mechanism - Bio - diesel blending policy has advanced rapidly, reaching B40 in 2025 and planning B50 in 2026. Ethanol fuel blending has a more tortuous path, with the E5 pilot restarted in 2023. The SAF blending target has been adjusted [20][21][22] - Indonesia uses a market index price mechanism to regulate the biofuel industry, with the price of bio - diesel and bio - ethanol related to CPO and molasses prices respectively [23][26] 3.1.4 Bio - diesel Subsidy Development and Adjustment - The subsidy mechanism for bio - diesel has shifted from the national budget to the palm oil plantation fund (BPDP). The government provides price - difference subsidies to producers [27][28] - Fluctuations in palm oil prices and frequent adjustments to export tax policies have put pressure on the sustainability of the subsidy fund [29] 3.1.5 Carbon Market Trading Mechanism and Carbon Tax - Indonesia has established a carbon market trading system and plans to implement a carbon tax. However, the carbon market is currently limited in scale, and the implementation of the carbon tax has been delayed [35][36][37] 3.2 Indonesia Bio - based Diesel Industry Analysis 3.2.1 Industry Overview - Indonesia mainly produces palm - oil - based bio - diesel, including FAME (dominant) and HVO (in the initial stage) [38] 3.2.2 Demand Growth Driven by Policy and Subsidy - Policy support and subsidies have driven the growth of bio - diesel demand. With the increase in blending ratios, consumption has grown rapidly. The planned B50 policy is expected to further boost demand [39] - The subsidy mechanism has some limitations, such as the instability of the subsidy fund due to palm oil price fluctuations [40] 3.2.3 Reshaping Export Trade Flow - Indonesia may prioritize the domestic market due to increasing domestic demand and trade policy restrictions. European trade policies have significantly affected Indonesia's bio - diesel exports [43][44] 3.2.4 Current Supply and Future Outlook - Currently, bio - diesel supply is stable, but future supply may be tight due to potential shortages in palm oil supply and limited production capacity when the blending ratio reaches B50 [48][55] 3.2.5 Challenges in Implementing B50 - The B50 policy faces challenges in technology (FAME limitations), supply (raw material and capacity shortages), and funds (sustainability of subsidies) [58][59] 3.3 Indonesia Sustainable Aviation Fuel Industry Analysis 3.3.1 Industry Overview - SAF is in the initial stage in Indonesia, with the HEFA process being the main production method [60][61] 3.3.2 Demand Drivers - Policy - mandated blending, the growth of the aviation industry, and economic benefits are the main drivers of SAF demand [63][64] 3.3.3 Supply Situation - The supply of SAF is limited by raw material collection and technology compliance issues. The Cilacap Green Refinery project has achieved initial commercialization [69][70] 3.4 Indonesia Fuel Ethanol Industry Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Overview - Indonesia's fuel ethanol industry mainly uses molasses as raw material, facing challenges such as limited supply, competition for raw materials, and high costs [74] 3.4.2 Policy Progress and Current Consumption - The development of fuel ethanol has been tortuous. The E5 pilot was restarted in 2023, but current consumption is limited [75][77] 3.4.3 Raw Material and Capacity Constraints - Raw material supply is insufficient, and the current production capacity is far from meeting the demand. Alternative raw materials are still in the experimental stage [80][81] 3.4.4 Economic Barriers - The high price of E5 gasoline compared to regular gasoline and import restrictions hinder the promotion of fuel ethanol [88][89] 3.5 Impact of Indonesia Biofuel on Petroleum Consumption - Bio - diesel has a large potential to replace fossil diesel, while the impact of fuel ethanol on gasoline consumption is limited, and SAF has great potential in the future [93] - Bio - fuels can reduce Indonesia's dependence on petroleum imports and lower import costs [94] 3.6 Summary and Outlook - Indonesia's biofuel industry has potential but faces challenges in policy implementation, raw material supply, production capacity, and subsidy mechanisms [97][98][99] - Key issues for future development include the implementation of the B50 plan, the breakthrough of the fuel ethanol industry, the development of SAF, and the improvement of the subsidy mechanism [99]