棉花产业风险管理日报-20250904

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The recent issuance of 200,000 tons of cotton import sliding - duty processing trade quotas by the National Development and Reform Commission has limited impact on the market. Before the new cotton is listed, the low - inventory situation still supports cotton prices. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October", the downstream finished - product inventory is further reduced, but the profit has not been significantly restored, and the overall downstream confidence is still insufficient. The strategy is to go long on dips but not to chase the rise. Attention should be paid to the listing time and opening price of new cotton and the subsequent downstream peak - season sales [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - Price Range Forecast: The predicted monthly price range for cotton is 13,800 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0924 and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.2606 [3]. - Inventory Management Strategy: For enterprises with high inventory worried about cotton price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 14,200 - 14,400. They can also sell call options (CF601C14400) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 300 - 350 to reduce costs and lock in the spot selling price if the cotton price rises [3]. - Procurement Management Strategy: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and wanting to purchase according to orders, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 13,800 - 13,900 to lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell put options (CF601P13800) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 250 - 300 to reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot cotton purchase price if the cotton price drops [3]. Core Contradictions - Inventory Support: Due to the increase in spinning capacity in Xinjiang and a significant reduction in imported cotton this year, the downstream rigid consumption of cotton has increased, and the inventory of Xinjiang cotton has decreased rapidly. As of August 15, the domestic cotton industrial and commercial inventory was 2.7444 million tons, a decrease of 343,800 tons from the end of July, which supports cotton prices [4]. - Downstream Seasonal Changes: With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October", the downstream finished - product inventory is further reduced, and the load of cloth mills continues to rise slightly, showing signs of the peak season [4]. - USDA Report Impact: The USDA's August supply - demand forecast report lowered the US cotton production and raised China's consumption, and significantly lowered the global ending inventory [4]. Negative Factors - Quota Issuance: The National Development and Reform Commission issued 200,000 tons of cotton import sliding - duty processing trade quotas to supplement the market supply before the new cotton is listed [5]. - New Cotton Outlook: The growth progress of new cotton in Xinjiang is fast, and the overall growth is good, with an optimistic outlook for the new - year production [5]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton Futures: Cotton 01 closed at 14,010, up 20 (0.14%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,950, unchanged; Cotton 09 closed at 13,580, up 5 (0.04%) [7]. - Cotton Yarn Futures: Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,995, unchanged; Cotton yarn 05 closed at 20,215, down 100% (this data seems abnormal); Cotton yarn 09 closed at 20,100, up 475 (2.42%) [7]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Spreads - Cotton - related Spreads: The cotton basis was 1,441, down 34; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 60, up 20; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was 370, down 5; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was - 430, down 15 [8]. - Other Spreads: The cotton - yarn spread was 5,990, up 20; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 2,216, up 140; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 517, unchanged [8]. Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - Domestic Indexes: CCI 3128B was 15,451, down 14 (- 0.09%); CCI 2227B was 13,541, down 12 (- 0.09%); CCI 2129B was 15,703, down 16 (- 0.1%) [9]. - Foreign Indexes: FCI Index S was 13,708, up 108 (0.79%); FCI Index M was 13,492, up 107 (0.8%); FCI Index L was 13,194, up 110 (0.84%) [9]