国债期货日报：短期遇阻-20250904

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a band - trading approach for treasury bond futures. It indicates that the bond market may enter a period of oscillation as the 10 - year treasury bond yield faces significant resistance around 1.75%. It advises against chasing high prices and recommends taking profit on previous long positions [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Conditions - On Thursday, treasury bond futures opened higher across the board, with narrow intraday fluctuations. Medium - and long - term bonds closed higher, while short - term bonds weakened at the end of the session. Spot bond yields first declined and then rose, with most turning upward by the end of the day. The open market had a net withdrawal of 20.35 billion yuan, and the funds were loose, with DR001 remaining at 1.31% [1] 3.2. Intraday News - The second group leader meeting of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank aims to jointly ensure the better implementation of fiscal and monetary policies - Bloomberg reported that China is considering measures to curb stock market speculation and seek stable development of the A - share market - Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested starting interest rate cuts this month and multiple cuts in the next 3 - 6 months, with the pace depending on data [2] 3.3. Market Judgment - The opening of spot bonds continued the upward trend from the previous day's close, driving treasury bond futures to open higher. Then, each variety basically maintained a narrow - range shock. The A - share market fell for the third consecutive day, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by up to 2% during the session, and the previous hot sectors experiencing greater declines. However, the bond market did not gain more upward momentum. After the futures market closed, spot bonds weakened, indicating a lack of further upward drivers in the bond market [3] 3.4. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Data - Contract Prices and Changes: TS2512 was at 102.44 (unchanged), TF2512 at 105.745 (up 0.055), T2512 at 108.27 (up 0.15), and TL2512 at 117.4 (up 0.37) - Contract Positions and Changes: TS contract positions increased by 429 to 76,004 hands, TF by 3,428 to 142,981 hands, T by 4,090 to 217,136 hands, and TL decreased by 2,021 to 140,684 hands - Basis and Changes: TS basis (CTD) was - 0.0299 (down 0.0074), TF basis (CTD) was 0.0269 (down 0.0577), T basis (CTD) was 0.3866 (down 0.0537), and TL basis (CTD) was 0.8792 (up 0.1384) - Trading Volume and Changes: TS main contract trading volume increased by 5,941 to 31,545 hands, TF by 501 to 62,934 hands, T decreased by 2,944 to 83,913 hands, and TL decreased by 21,692 to 135,244 hands [4]