国防军工行业2025年半年报业绩回顾：“业绩底”筑基，上游环节和兵器板块实现增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the military industry, suggesting it is entering a new upward cycle from 2025 to 2027, with 2025 marking a performance bottom for the industry [6]. Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the military industry (excluding shipbuilding) achieved a total revenue of 222.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 19.8% [11][12]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue increase of 17.1% year-on-year and a 59.2% quarter-on-quarter growth, although net profit still declined by 9.5% year-on-year [65][67]. - The report highlights that the industry is experiencing a "non-linear" change in revenue and profit due to factors such as price reductions and impairments, leading to significant uncertainty in performance forecasts [11][2]. - The military industry is expected to see a recovery in demand starting from 2025, with the revenue growth already reflected in the first half of 2025 [11][2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - In 1H25, the military industry reported a total revenue of 222.5 billion yuan, up 7.5% year-on-year, while net profit fell to 12.9 billion yuan, down 19.8% [11][12]. - The shipbuilding sector, when included, showed a total revenue of 342.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, with net profit decreasing by 0.7% [11][12]. - The report indicates that the military industry has faced a decline in net profit for eight consecutive quarters, with the first half of 2025 showing signs of recovery in revenue [2][4]. Inventory and Receivables - As of June 30, 2025, industry inventory reached 274.9 billion yuan, accounting for 124% of total revenue, indicating a positive shift as companies prepare for order recovery [3][20]. - Receivables stood at 335.68 billion yuan, representing 160% of total revenue, reflecting significant collection pressure on companies [3][22]. Segment Performance - The weaponry sector experienced a revenue increase of 36% year-on-year in 1H25, while the shipbuilding sector's revenue grew by 20% [4][32]. - The report notes that the upstream segment's revenue increased by 6% year-on-year, while the midstream segment saw a decline of 2% [4][56]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on new-generation traditional equipment and new combat forces, highlighting specific companies within the aerospace, guidance, and commercial space sectors as potential investment opportunities [5].