原油策略：原油：原油震荡下行

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The crude oil market is in the late stage of the seasonal travel peak. Although the EIA data shows a decrease in US crude oil and gasoline inventories and high refinery operating rates, OPEC+ is accelerating production increases. EIA and IEA have raised the forecast of the global oil surplus, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The consumption peak is about to end, and the supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken. Therefore, it is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting and potential sanctions on Russian oil [1]. Summary by Related Directory Strategy Analysis - Recommend shorting on rallies. Despite short - term price rebounds due to positive US EIA data, market bets on Fed rate cuts in September, and geopolitical conflicts, the subsequent consumption peak will end, and OPEC+ may further increase production. There are also potential sanctions on Russian oil. Pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting and the situation of sanctions on Russian oil [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2510 fell 2.20% to 481.0 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 479.9 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 487.7 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 1340 to 27643 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by more than 2 million barrels per day in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, an upward revision of 0.8 million barrels per day from last month. EIA has also lowered the average Brent crude oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026. OPEC maintains the global crude oil demand growth rate for 2025 at 1.29 million barrels per day and raises it for 2026 to 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA has adjusted the global oil supply and demand growth rate forecasts for 2025 and 2026. The EIA data on August 27 showed a decrease in US crude oil, gasoline, and refined oil inventories [3]. - On the supply side, OPEC's June crude oil production was revised down by 46,000 barrels per day, and its July 2025 production increased by 262,000 barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. US crude oil production increased by 57,000 barrels per day in the week of August 22. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased, and the weekly demand for gasoline and diesel increased, driving the weekly supply of US crude oil products to increase by 0.50% [4][6].