冠通研究：高位震荡

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View The report indicates that recent overseas trading focuses on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and independence issues. The falling US dollar index supports the non - ferrous metals market. Fundamentally, domestic copper inventories are still low, and copper supply is expected to be tight. Both refined copper and scrap copper rod production are expected to decrease. Demand is about to enter the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". Therefore, copper prices are expected to be mainly in a volatile and upward trend, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut situation [1]. Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - The US JOLTS job openings data is weak, strengthening market expectations of an interest - rate cut, but the Fed's independence is questioned, leading to high market uncertainty and a rebound in the US dollar index [1]. - In July, China's imports of copper ore concentrates were about 2.56 million tons, a significant increase month - on - month, and port inventories of concentrates also rebounded from the bottom. After the smelter processing fees showed an upward inflection point, they continued to decline in the recent two periods. The sulfuric acid price has reached a high level, and its contribution to smelter profits will decline. Five smelters plan to conduct maintenance in September, involving a crude smelting capacity of 1 million tons, and domestic electrolytic copper production in September is expected to decline month - on - month [1]. - After the copper tariff takes effect, imported copper will flow back to the domestic market. With the expected decline in domestic production in the second half of the year, imported copper will squeeze the domestic market and affect pricing [1]. - As of July 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3745 million tons. Although it is currently in the off - season, the increasing investment in domestic power grid facilities drives copper demand. However, due to the US tariff and trade policies in the first half of the year, there was a rush to export household appliances, which over - drew the export demand in the second half of the year. The domestic subsidy policy of "trading in the old for the new" also advanced domestic demand [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened low, rose during the day, and then declined, with the closing price at 79,770 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 150 yuan/ton, and in South China was 40 yuan/ton. On September 1, 2025, the LME official price was $9,952/ton, and the spot premium was - $79/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of August 29, the spot crude smelting fee (TC) was - $41.25/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.12 cents/pound [7]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 19,800 tons, an increase of 358 tons from the previous period. As of September 1, Shanghai Free Trade Zone copper inventory was 82,900 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 158,400 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 284,400 short tons, an increase of 3,325 short tons from the previous period [11].