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养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20250904
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo·2025-09-04 11:12

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Futures Research Institute's Daily Strategy Report on the Breeding and Oilseed Industry Chain [3][8] - Authors: Wang Liangliang, Hou Zhifang, Wang Yibo, Song Congzhi [1] - Completion time: September 3, 2025 [1] Group 2: Sector Strategy Recommendations 2.1 Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Outlook | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1, Contract 11 | New domestic soybeans are gradually entering the market, and domestic soybean auctions continue, increasing supply. | 3850 - 3900 | 4145 - 4150 | Sideways with a bearish bias | Hold short positions | | | Soybean No. 2, Contract 11 | Uncertainty in supply due to possible increase in fourth - quarter South American soybean purchases. | 3600 - 3630 | 3950 - 4000 | Sideways adjustment | Wait and see | | | Peanut, Contract 11 | Expected increase in new - season production, lower costs, and increasing market supply. Pre - Mid - Autumn Festival stocking is starting. | 7500 - 7600 | 8100 - 8162 | Sideways adjustment | Wait and see | | Oils | Soybean oil, Contract 01 | Uncertainty in fourth - quarter supply, weak current situation, and expected reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports. | 8230 - 8300 | 8800 - 9000 | Sideways with a bullish bias | Go long after stabilization | | | Rapeseed oil, Contract 01 | Increased supply | 9500 - 9580 | 9998 - 10343 | Sideways adjustment | Wait and see | | | Palm oil, Contract 01 | Price pressure from lower US soybean oil prices, but poor Malaysian palm oil production. | 9074 - 9200 | 9736 - 9990 | Sideways adjustment | Go long on dips with a light position | | Proteins | Soybean meal, Contract 01 | Uncertainty in supply due to possible increase in fourth - quarter South American soybean purchases, and decreasing fourth - quarter consumption. | 2980 - 3000 | 3180 - 3200 | Sideways with a bullish bias | Go long after stabilization | | | Rapeseed meal, Contract 01 | Expected reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports, poor cost - performance, and weak consumption. | 2400 - 2438 | 2632 - 2698 | Sideways adjustment | Wait and see | | Energy and By - products | Corn, Contract 11 | Fundamental pressure remains, but the decline slows down at low prices. | 2100 - 2120 | 2240 - 2250 | Low - level sideways | Hold short positions cautiously | | | Starch, Contract 11 | Slower decline in corn prices at the cost end, and a slightly loose spot market. | 2400 - 2420 | 2580 - 2590 | Low - level sideways | Hold short positions cautiously | | Breeding | Live pigs, Contract 11 | Feed prices stop falling and rebound, and the expectation of capacity reduction strengthens. | 13500 - 13750 | 14500 - 15000 | Sideways rebound | Hold long positions | | | Eggs, Contract 10 | Capacity pressure and expected peak consumption season | 2900 - 3100 | 3300 - 3350 | Sideways bottom - seeking | Go long on dips | [11] 2.2 Commodity Arbitrage | Sector | Spread Type | Current Value | Previous Value | Change | Reference Strategy | Reference Target | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1, 11 - 1 | 0 | 7 | - 7 | Wait and see | - | | | Soybean No. 2, 11 - 1 | - 35 | - 32 | - 3 | Wait and see | - | | | Peanut, 10 - 11 | 172 | 180 | - 8 | Wait and see | - | | Oils | Soybean oil, 1 - 5 | 296 | 288 | 8 | Wait and see | - | | | Rapeseed oil, 9 - 1 | 20 | - 173 | 193 | Wait and see | - | | | Palm oil, 9 - 1 | - 22 | - 42 | 20 | Wait and see | - | | Proteins | Soybean meal, 3 - 5 | 182 | 173 | 9 | Bull spread | 300 - 400 | | | Rapeseed meal, 9 - 1 | 41 | 53 | - 12 | Wait and see | - | | Energy and By - products | Corn, 11 - 1 | 11 | 17 | - 6 | Wait and see | - | | | Starch, 11 - 1 | - 33 | - 30 | - 3 | Wait and see | - | | Breeding | Live pigs, 1 - 3 | - 765 | - 765 | 0 | Bull spread on dips | - | | | Eggs, 10 - 1 | - 425 | - 425 | 0 | Bull spread on dips | - | | Oils (Cross - variety) | 01 Soybean oil - Palm oil | - 1002 | - 1066 | 64 | Bearish operation | - | | | 01 Rapeseed oil - Soybean oil | 1361 | 1410 | - 49 | Bullish operation | - | | | 09 Rapeseed oil - Palm oil | 1446 | 1528 | - 82 | Wait and see | - | | Proteins (Cross - variety) | 01 Soybean meal - Rapeseed meal | 545 | 550 | - 5 | Low - level sideways | - | | Oil - meal ratio | 01 Soybean oil - meal ratio | 2.73 | 2.74 | - 0.01 | Bullish operation | 2.8 - 2.82 | | | 09 Rapeseed oil - meal ratio | 3.86 | 3.90 | - 0.04 | Wait and see | - | | Energy and By - products (Cross - variety) | 11 Starch - Corn | 294 | 305 | - 11 | Wait and see | 300 - 400 | [12][13] 2.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies | Sector | Variety | Spot Price | Price Change | Main Contract Basis | Basis Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 | 4060 | 0 | 99 | 94 | | | Soybean No. 2 | 3850 | 0 | 67 | - 11 | | | Peanut | 7400 | 0 | - 342 | 80 | | Oils | Soybean oil | 8750 | 0 | 334 | 0 | | | Rapeseed oil | 9870 | 40 | 143 | - 35 | | | Palm oil | 9400 | 70 | 32 | 124 | | Proteins | Soybean meal | 3020 | 0 | - 6 | - 6 | | | Rapeseed meal | 2600 | 0 | 79 | - 21 | | Energy and By - products | Corn | 2270 | 0 | 67 | 7 | | | Starch | 2660 | 0 | 173 | - 11 | | Breeding | Live pigs | 13.93 yuan/kg | - 0.10 yuan/kg | 600 | 45 | | | Eggs | 2.80 yuan/jin | 0 | 239 | - 2 | [14] Group 3: Key Data Tracking 3.1 Oilseeds and Oils 3.1.1 Daily Data - Import cost data for soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates are provided, including CNF prices, landed duty - paid prices, and estimated meal costs when the crushing profit is zero [16][17] 3.1.2 Weekly Data | Variety | Inventory | Operating Rate | | --- | --- | --- | | Soybeans | Port inventory: 684.20 ( + 3.16) | - | | Soybean meal | Oil mill inventory: 107.88 ( + 2.55) | 61.00% | | Soybean oil | Port inventory: 118.10 ( + 4.10) | - 1.00% | | Rapeseeds | Coastal oil mill inventory: 12.90 ( - 2.40) | 28.03% | | Rapeseed meal | Coastal area inventory: 2.50 ( + 0.40) | - | | Rapeseed oil | East China commercial inventory: 55.40 ( + 1.80) | - 0.80% | | Palm oil | Inventory: 61 ( + 3) | - | | Peanuts | Inventory: 76130 ( - 7070) | 6.32% | | Peanut oil | Inventory: 38530 ( - 320) | 1.58% | [18][19] 3.2 Feed 3.2.1 Daily Data - Import cost data for corn from Argentina and Brazil in October and November are provided, including CNF prices and landed duty - paid costs [19] 3.2.2 Weekly Data | Indicator | Current Value | Week - on - Week Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Deep - processing enterprise corn consumption (10,000 tons) | 100.63 | + 0.42 | - 16.14 | | Deep - processing enterprise corn inventory (10,000 tons) | 294.20 | - 20.50 | + 7.40 | | Starch enterprise operating rate (%) | 47.70 | - 3.31 | - 6.64 | | Starch enterprise inventory (10,000 tons) | 126.50 | - 5.30 | + 126.50 | [20] 3.3 Breeding 3.3.1 Live Pigs - Daily data shows the price changes of live pigs, piglets, pork wholesale prices, and related ratios in different regions on September 3, 2025 [21] - Weekly data includes information on live pig prices, breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, and other aspects [25] 3.3.2 Eggs - Daily data shows the price changes of eggs and淘汰 chickens in different regions on September 3, 2025 [22] - Weekly data focuses on supply - side indicators (such as egg - laying rate, hen age at culling, and culling volume), demand - side indicators (such as sales volume and inventory), and profit - related data [23][24] Group 4: Fundamental Tracking Charts - Charts are provided for the breeding end (live pigs and eggs), oilseeds and oils (palm oil, soybean oil, peanuts), and the feed end (corn, corn starch, rapeseed, and soybean meal), showing various data such as production, inventory, price spreads, and historical volatility [26][35][54] Group 5: Options and Warehouse Receipts 5.1 Options - Charts show the historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [87][88][89] 5.2 Warehouse Receipts - Charts display the warehouse receipt situations of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs [90][91][93]