方正中期期货生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20250904

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soft Commodity Sector - Sugar: The international raw sugar market is currently facing a mix of bullish and bearish factors. In the short - term, the external sugar price may continue to fluctuate within a range. The domestic sugar market has more bearish factors on the supply side, with the futures price of Zhengzhou sugar showing a short - term weak trend. However, due to the relatively low inventory pressure of sugar - making enterprises and the improvement in trading volume during the peak - season stocking, the downside space for sugar prices is also limited [3]. - Soft Commodity Sector - Pulp: The pulp industry chain has not changed significantly recently. The supply pressure remains high, and the demand in the finished paper market has yet to improve. Although the recent increase in the overseas broad - leaf pulp offer price and the fact that the coniferous pulp price is below the cost of some enterprises provide certain support, the upward driving force for pulp prices is still weak, and it is expected to operate in a low - level oscillation [4]. - Soft Commodity Sector - Cotton: The international cotton market is in a situation of long - short game. The short - term price of US cotton futures may continue to oscillate at a low level. The domestic cotton market is affected by the news of state reserve sales, and the short - term price may continue to oscillate and consolidate [5][6]. - Fresh Fruit Sector - Apple: The opening price of early - maturing apples has increased year - on - year, and the poor performance of the high - quality fruit rate has provided support for the futures price. As long as the concerns about the high - quality fruit rate are not falsified, the futures price may continue to be supported [7]. - Fresh Fruit Sector - Jujube: The inventory of jujubes in the spot market has been continuously reduced, and the terminal replenishment enthusiasm has improved. The price of high - quality jujubes in the sales area is strong. The futures price of jujubes has shown a high - level correction, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the production area during the key growth stage of sugar - coloring of new - season jujubes [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - Fresh Fruit Futures: For Apple 2510, the recommended strategy is to wait and see or take a short - long approach, with a support range of 7700 - 7800 and a pressure range of 8500 - 8600. For Jujube 2601, the recommended strategy is to reduce long positions, with a support range of 11000 - 11200 and a pressure range of 11500 - 12000 [16]. - Soft Commodity Futures: For Sugar 2601, the recommended strategy is to reduce short positions, with a support range of 5530 - 5550 and a pressure range of 5630 - 5650. For Pulp 2511, the recommended strategy is to be short - biased within the range, with a support range of 4900 - 5000 and a pressure range of 5150 - 5200. For Cotton 2601, the recommended strategy is to return to a wait - and - see state, with a support range of 13500 - 13600 and a pressure range of 14300 - 14400 [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - Fundamental Information: In July, China's fresh apple exports were about 53,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.39%. From January to July, the cumulative export volume was about 464,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.0%. As of August 27, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 339,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 54,800 tons. According to different statistics, as of August 28, the national cold - storage inventory was 353,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 299,600 tons. Different institutions have different forecasts for the national apple production this year, with one showing a slight decrease and the other showing a slight increase [17]. - Spot Market Situation: The mainstream transaction price of apples in the Shandong production area has increased, mainly due to the increased enthusiasm of merchants to purchase cold - storage goods. The price of high - quality goods has risen, while the price of low - quality goods has remained basically stable. The transaction price in the northwest production area of early - maturing Fuji high - quality goods is stable and high. The arrival and shipment in the sales area are stable, and the price is stable [18][19]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market The temperature in the main jujube - producing areas in Xinjiang has slightly decreased, and some areas have experienced light rain. Attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall on quality during the sugar - coloring period. The average daily arrival of jujubes in the sales area has decreased. The price of high - quality jujubes is strong, and the price of ordinary jujubes is stable and firm. The inventory in the sample points has decreased [20]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market As of August 31, 2025, Yunnan's cumulative sugar sales were 2.0823 million tons, with a sales rate of 86.09%. In August, the single - month sugar sales were 130,900 tons, and the industrial inventory was 336,400 tons. As of the end of August, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales were 5.7563 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.04%. In August, the single - month sugar sales were 260,200 tons, and the industrial inventory was 708,700 tons. The spot market quotation of Guangxi sugar - making enterprises has been slightly reduced [23]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market The decline in the domestic spot and futures prices of bleached softwood pulp has significantly suppressed the trading volume of imported bleached softwood pulp in the past week. The inventory of bleached softwood pulp (especially Russian softwood pulp) is high, which has put obvious pressure on the futures price. The price of Canadian and Nordic NBSK has remained at 680 - 700 US dollars per ton. The price of bleached hardwood pulp has been raised twice by suppliers, with a cumulative increase of 40 US dollars per ton, and the current price is 500 - 520 US dollars per ton [4][25]. 3.2.5 Cotton Market In July 2025, the yarn production of large - scale enterprises was 1.992 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%. From January to July, the yarn production was 13.426 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In July, the cloth production was 2.67 billion meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.96%. From January to July, the cumulative cloth production was 1.825 billion square meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. In the 2024/25 season, India's total yarn exports in June were 83,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.76% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.59% [26]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - Futures Market Review: The closing prices of Apple 2510, Jujube 2601, Sugar 2601, and Cotton 2601 have all declined, while the closing price of Pulp 2511 has increased slightly [27][28]. - Spot Market Review: The spot price of apples has increased month - on - month and year - on - year; the spot price of jujubes has decreased month - on - month and year - on - year; the spot price of sugar has remained unchanged month - on - month but decreased year - on - year; the spot price of pulp has remained unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year; the spot price of cotton has increased month - on - month and year - on - year [30]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary is provided in the text, only figures are mentioned, so no content is summarized here. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation The spreads of Apple 10 - 1, Jujube 9 - 1, Sugar 9 - 1, and Cotton 1 - 5 are all in a state of oscillation, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [48]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific data summary is provided in the text, only figures are mentioned, so no content is summarized here. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation The warehouse receipts of apples are 0, with no change month - on - month and year - on - year; the warehouse receipts of jujubes are 10,037, a month - on - month decrease of 52 and a year - on - year increase of 2,472; the warehouse receipts of sugar are 12,782, a month - on - month decrease of 420 and a year - on - year decrease of 1,538; the warehouse receipts of pulp are 247,227, a month - on - month decrease of 40 and a year - on - year decrease of 226,119; the warehouse receipts of cotton are 5,996, a month - on - month decrease of 135 and a year - on - year decrease of 2,786 [75]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data summary is provided in the text, only figures are mentioned, so no content is summarized here.