方正中期期货新能源产业链日度策略-20250904
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo·2025-09-04 11:12
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Carbonate Lithium: The spot price is falling, and the futures continue the downward trend. The "Golden September and Silver October" season is coming, and the inventory cycle of downstream material factories has slightly extended. The supply reduction rate has slowed down, and the inventory transfer from lithium salt enterprises to downstream continues. The probability of downstream large - scale replenishment may decrease. The downstream is advised to seize the opportunity for futures buying hedging [3][4]. - Industrial Silicon: Supply is steadily increasing, and the operating rate is rising. The demand from different sectors has different situations, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited with high - level inventory. In September, attention should be paid to the possible production reduction in the silicon material industry chain. The futures price is in a confrontation between weak reality and strong expectation, and is expected to continue range - bound [5]. - Polysilicon: The news of industry capacity acquisition has heated up the speculative sentiment. The production has no significant increase, and there is a strong expectation of self - disciplined production reduction in September. The inventory has been continuously decreasing. The spot price has risen, and the downstream acceptance needs to be concerned. The short - term sentiment is bullish, but chasing the rise blindly should be avoided [7]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Spot Price a. Plate Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium 11 | News - driven market | 70,000 - 72,000 | 80,000 - 82,000 | Stabilize and rebound | Downstream cathode material enterprises focus on low - level stockpiling or buying hedging [13] | | Industrial Silicon 11 | Confrontation between weak reality and strong policy expectation | 8,200 - 8,300 | 8,900 - 9,000 | Range - bound | Adopt range - trading thinking, and it is more recommended to sell slightly out - of - the - money put options at low prices [13] | | Polysilicon 11 | News - dominated market, short - term speculative sentiment has significantly heated up | 47,000 - 48,000 | 54,000 - 55,000 | Rebound and rise | Consider a bullish approach in the short term [13] | b. Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 71,880 | - 1.02% | 442,800 | 346,048 | - 2,061 | 34,118 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,490 | 0.24% | 275,841 | 279,742 | - 1,738 | 50,348 | | Polysilicon | 52,160 | 0.34% | 362,759 | 149,210 | 33,553,355 | 6,870.006870.00 | [14] Second Part: Fundamental Situation a. Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory Situation: Last week, the production was 19,030 tons, a decrease of 108 tons from the previous week. The total sample inventory was 141,136 tons, a decrease of 407 tons from the previous week, and the inventory decline rate was slower than expected [4]. - Downstream Situation: No specific text description provided, but relevant data charts such as the production capacity and operating rate of lithium iron phosphate are presented [25]. b. Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory Situation: Supply is increasing, and the operating rate is rising. The inventory is at a high level and continues to be sorted out [5]. - Downstream Situation: The demand from different sectors has different trends, such as the increase in polysilicon production, the stalemate in the organic silicon market, the possible reduction in aluminum alloy production, and the improvement in export demand [5]. c. Polysilicon Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory Situation: In the week of August 28, 2025, the weekly production was 29,900 tons, with no significant increase, and the operating rate was 48%, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The inventory has been decreasing for four consecutive weeks, and last week it was 245,000 tons [7]. - Downstream Situation: No specific text description provided, but relevant data charts such as the monthly production of silicon wafers and photovoltaic modules are presented [44].