冠通研究：内需拖累，盘面下行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The downstream domestic demand is insufficient, and short - term export boost is limited. Urea is expected to run weakly, but there will be a bottom - support market for autumn fertilizers and off - season storage, so be cautious about short - selling [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea market opened low and moved high today, facing pressure during the day. Affected by the decline in the futures market, upstream factory prices were lowered, with small - particle urea ex - factory prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranging from 1650 - 1680 yuan/ton, and some factory prices were reduced by 10 yuan/ton [1][3] - India's NFL received bids for 5.6 million tons of urea from 29 bidders on September 2nd [1] - Recently, the daily urea production has fluctuated within 18 - 190,000 tons. Although summer maintenance is ongoing, the production remains at a high level, and the current reduction in production has not changed the loose supply pattern [1] - Affected by parades and major meetings, the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has dropped significantly this period, and it is expected to resume production gradually this week. The finished product inventory in factories continues to decline, and the finished fertilizers are starting to be transferred to the end - users. The possibility of subsequent concentrated fertilizer procurement is low, and the incremental demand for urea may be limited. The operating load is expected to increase next week [1] - The urea inventory in factories continues to accumulate, increasing by 0.92 million tons compared with last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.85% [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes Futures - The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1712 yuan/ton, moved high after opening low, faced pressure during the day, and finally closed at 1714 yuan/ton, forming a negative line with a change of - 1.32%. The open interest was 234,351 lots (+1,623 lots) [2] - Among the top twenty main open - interest seats of the main contract, long positions increased by 1,597 lots, and short positions decreased by 1,667 lots. For example, Galaxy Futures had a net long position of - 1,171 lots, Hongyuan Futures had a net long position of - 234 lots; Yide Futures had a net short position of +1,064 lots, and Guotai Junan had a net short position of - 1,213 lots [2] - On September 4, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,928, a month - on - month increase of 723 compared with the previous trading day. For example, Jiashili Pingyuan increased by 450, Jiashili Jingzhou increased by 115, and Anyang Wanzhuang (Sichuan Agricultural Means of Production) decreased by 25, while Anyang Wanzhuang increased by 150 [2] Spot - Affected by the decline in the futures market, upstream factory prices were lowered, with small - particle urea ex - factory prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranging from 1650 - 1680 yuan/ton, and some factory prices were reduced by 10 yuan/ton [1][3] Fundamental Tracking Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotation was stable, while the futures closing price declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 4 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton) [6] Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on September 4, 2025, the national daily urea production was 183,400 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared with yesterday, and the operating rate was 77.49% [8] Downstream Data - From August 29th to September 4th, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 33.08%, a decrease of 6.14 percentage points compared with last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 58.98%, an increase of 0.48 percentage points compared with last week [11]