Guolian Minsheng Securities·2025-09-04 11:19Investment Rating - The investment rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - CNOOC reported a revenue of 207.61 billion yuan for H1 2025, a decrease of 8.4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 69.5 billion yuan, down 12.8% year-on-year [4][12] - Despite a decline in oil prices, the company's performance showed resilience, with a smaller drop in net profit compared to the decrease in oil prices [13] - The company has successfully increased production, with total oil and gas output reaching 196 million barrels of oil equivalent in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.3% [14] - CNOOC continues to maintain a high dividend policy, proposing a cash dividend of 31.64 billion yuan for H1 2025, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 45.5% [15] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 132.3 billion yuan, 136 billion yuan, and 140.1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.78 yuan, 2.86 yuan, and 2.95 yuan [16] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, CNOOC's revenue was 207.61 billion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year, while net profit was 69.5 billion yuan, down 12.8% year-on-year [4][12] - Q2 2025 revenue was 100.75 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6% year-on-year and 5.7% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit at 32.97 billion yuan, down 17.6% year-on-year and 9.8% quarter-on-quarter [12] Production and Cost Management - CNOOC's total oil and gas production in Q2 2025 was 196 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 7.3% year-on-year, with crude oil production at 151 million barrels, up 5.5%, and natural gas production at 263.2 billion cubic feet, up 13.7% [14] - Capital expenditure in Q2 2025 was 29.89 billion yuan, down 12.4% year-on-year, but still at a high level to support business operations [14] Dividend Policy - The company proposed a cash dividend of 31.64 billion yuan for H1 2025, with a dynamic dividend yield of 4.89% for A shares and 6.97% for H shares [15] Earnings Forecast - CNOOC's projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 132.3 billion yuan, 136 billion yuan, and 140.1 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.78 yuan, 2.86 yuan, and 2.95 yuan [16]